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MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 4/27

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

April 27, 2022 11:58 AM
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The buzz about the baseballs won’t be going away anytime soon. In yesterday’s post-game press conference, Chris Bassitt effectively confirmed that MLB is using two different balls. Others have been quoting anonymous pitchers regarding the lack of grip on the ball. Offense took a bit of a spike yesterday, as there were a few high-scoring games, but there were also some very low-scoring games, so it seems like, as Bassitt inferred, it’s just the luck of the draw right now.

All we can do is take all of it into consideration and keep digging through the stats and metrics to find something that appears to be actionable.

Yesterday’s Recap

Brewers/Pirates: Credit to the Brewers for bringing the bats to the Steel City on Tuesday. It was their third game in three different cities with a very quirky scheduling situation. Brandon Woodruff wasn’t very sharp in his four innings, leaving the bullpen to get through a bit of a messy situation. Those innings are mounting with that group with limited off days, so that merits watching.

Rockies/Phillies: I nearly took the over in this game because German Marquez has no command whatsoever right now. He gave up seven runs in 3.2 innings of work yesterday, with 10 hard-hit balls and only one strikeout. Marquez’s Hard Hit% is now 49.4% and his K% is below 15%. Marquez’s velo was almost 96 mph in his first start, but has been in the 94.3 range in his last three starts. I think a stint on the injured list might be coming. If not, fade away.

Marlins/Nationals: Josiah Gray gave up four runs on seven hits, but did strike out 10 in his 5.2 innings of work. Sandy Alcantara was great again for the Marlins, even on the road. The Nationals are careening down a hill with no signs of stopping, but at least Gray does seem like a bright spot. As I mentioned yesterday, the markets bet on him and I think he’s the only guy they’ll bet on in that rotation moving forward.

Cubs/Braves: Marcus Stroman only allowed two earned runs over six innings, but the Braves had 13 hard-hit balls in his seven innings. Stroman ranks in the bottom 4% in Hard Hit% with a rate of 57.1%. He’s actually been really fortunate not to be worse than he has. His average launch angle against is far and away the highest of his career, so he’s not doing a good job of getting the ball down in the zone. After posting a career-worst HH% last season of 42%, I’m wondering if Stroman is dealing with something that has been a long-term concern.

Royals/White Sox: The Royals have had one of the lowest walk rates this season, but drew 11 walks against Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox bullpen. Nobody in the AL Central has grabbed the bull by the horns, as Chicago is playing very poorly right now. They’re struggling to pitch and struggling to hit with so many injuries. Keuchel got no help from his defense again, but walked five in four innings. It’s more about the injuries than the manager, but I don’t believe Tony La Russa is doing a good job.

Guardians/Angels: The Guardians have scored eight runs during this five-game losing streak and seem unlikely to fare well against Shohei Ohtani tonight. They’ve scored 48 runs in their four offensive explosions and 28 runs in their other 13 games. Feast or famine offense, but mostly famine.

Wednesday Resources

Weather: We’ve got a lot of cold weather in the forecast today. Winds are blowing out in Pittsburgh, New York and San Francisco, while Minnesota, Washington and Philadelphia feature winds blowing in.

Injuries: Check out our Injury Report right here at VSiN. Also, my friend @MLBDream on Twitter put together a great MLB beat writer list to follow.

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