MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 7/12

By Adam Burke  ( 

July 12, 2022 12:14 PM

One day game and 15 night games make up Tuesday’s schedule on the diamond, as the Guardians and White Sox play two on a perfect weather day in Cleveland. Sunny and 82 sounds pretty good back home when it’s 110 and blinding in Las Vegas.

Anyway, we’ll head to the card and see if I can’t get out of the July swoon that followed the June one with a tremendous stretch in between. The roller coaster ride of an MLB season can be fun at times and leave your stomach lurching at others. Let’s see what Tuesday has in store.

Yesterday’s Recap

Pirates/Marlins: Mitch Keller was solid for the Pirates and Miami’s home regression against RHP continued with a 5-1 loss in a big favorite role. The Pirates scored two in the first against Trevor Rogers, who limited hard contact and had seven strikeouts in 5.1 innings, but three early runs were too much for the Fish to overcome. This is an angle I’ve been watching with Jazz Chisholm Jr. still out and one I apparently should have played yesterday. Hopefully you did.

Keller did have a huge drop in velocity yesterday, so we’ll see if anything comes of that. His slider velo was down almost 4 mph and his two fastballs were down 1.3 and 1.6, respectively. Those velo numbers were closer to what he did in 2021. It may just be a reporting error, but I’ll check back later this week.

Phillies/Cardinals: The Phillies had 11 hard-hit balls against Miles Mikolas in 7.1 innings of work, but managed only a solo homer from Rhys Hoskins in the first inning. They had six hits, all singles otherwise, and didn’t draw any walks. Aaron Nola gave up three runs to the bottom of the order in the fifth and two in the seventh when his third time through the order penalty kicked in. It was a sick beat for Phillies 1st 5 and 1st 5 under backers to say the least.

Mets/Braves: Mad Max looked like the ace the Mets needed in a massive win over the Braves. He had 21 whiffs on 55 swings and struck out nine over seven innings. Max Fried had five walks, which made the day difficult for him. It was a tough spot to back Max in his second start off the IL, but he threw seven innings in 93 efficient pitches, which was my worry. The Braves have had issues with swing-and-miss guys and few are better than Scherzer.

Padres/Rockies: This over had no chance and then it did. The two bullpens really struggled, as 11 runs were scored, despite a combined 2-for-14 performance with RISP. Maybe this one deserved a better fate, maybe it didn’t, but I know it was another frustrating loss in a string of them. How Jose Urena only gave up two runs on seven hits with three walks and just three strikeouts at Coors Field will forever be a mystery to me.

As far as Sean Manaea goes, the velo looked fine and he allowed 10 hard-hit balls over 6.1 innings, but was able to minimize the damage and only walked one. His 65% sinker rate was his second-highest of the season, as he dared the Rockies to put balls in play.

Diamondbacks/Giants: Another excruciating loss for the Giants, who went down 4-3 to the Diamondbacks. Merrill Kelly outdueled Alex Cobb and the Arizona bullpen held on for the victory. San Francisco only had six hard-hit balls in the game on 30 balls in play. Their contact quality has really dropped off this season and they’re back to being just one game over .500.

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