MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 6/28

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 28, 2022 12:20 PM
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Onward we go into a busy Tuesday card with 16 games, including a day-night double dip in The Land. We only had nine games last night and only six NL teams were in action, so it was a pretty quiet night. We also had several lopsided final scores, so it was kind of a boring night around the big leagues.

With some really good pitching matchups and some others that have good betting angles, that shouldn’t be the case tonight.

Yesterday’s Recap

Pirates/Nationals: Quietly, the Nationals are playing a bit better lately with a 5-2 record over their last seven games. Of course, that comes on the heels of a stretch that featured an eight-game losing streak and losses in 11 of 13 games. It doesn’t help that Juan Soto has a .194/.383/.339 slash over his last 81 plate appearances as teams aren’t bothering to pitch to him. He’s seen far and away the lowest fastball percentage of his career.

The bad teams seem to get right against other bad teams and then lose to the good teams. It’s like they step up a little bit after rough stretches when getting a comparable foe. Something to monitor with the bottom-feeders.

Marlins/Cardinals: The elephant in the room that doesn’t seem to be getting much run is Pablo Lopez. He gave up five runs on six hits yesterday over five innings and now has a 4.84 ERA with a 4.79 FIP over his last eight starts. In fairness, five have been on the road, but still. He’s given up eight homers in that span and hasn’t been as sharp with his K/BB numbers. He’s allowed game exit velocities of 90 mph or higher five times. I think he’s still being priced and bet on as if he’s the same guy, but he really hasn’t been. I’m staying away or maybe looking to fade, especially on the road.

Dodgers/Rockies: The Dodgers getting shut out by Chad Kuhl and the Rockies is really something. This felt like a pretty bad situational spot for the Dodgers coming off of the long, hot weekend in Atlanta and extra innings on Sunday Night Baseball, but still. It’s Chad Kuhl. Tyler Anderson gave up a bunch of hard contact in his return to Coors and got lucky to only give up four runs on his 10 hits. It was a perfect storm for the Rockies last night, but this is a Dodgers team that is 12-11 in June, so they’ve had some days like this without the excuses.

A’s/Yankees: I’ll admit that I thought A’s + 1.5 was really sharp as the game was playing out. The A’s bullpen is the worst in baseball and it reared its ugly head, but, man. Two catcher’s interference calls in the same inning in the span of three hitters really set things up for the Yankees. There was also a hit-by-pitch mixed in there and one that sent Anthony Rizzo for x-rays.

The Yankees loaded the bases and scored a run on a walk, catcher’s interference, HBP, and catcher’s interference before getting two multi-run doubles and an RBI single. It was an astonishing sequence of events. It really makes you think about the Yankees, how they’re running and if they’re just a team of destiny.

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