MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 6/21

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 21, 2022 12:52 PM
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Tuesday brings the return of a full dance card in MLB, as all 30 teams will take the field. All 15 games will also come in a three-hour window from 6:40 p.m. ET to 9:40 p.m. That means you’ve got all day to study the card and check out the line moves before locking in your bets. We’ve got quite a few pitchers on the board that bettors have strong opinions about as well.

Yesterday’s two picks were winners, but both had sweats because of the prospect of extra innings. Betting unders in close games is really scary thanks to the ghost runner. Of the many great products in the VSiN store, this one definitely resonates the most with me.

Yesterday’s Recap

Marlins/Mets: Trevor Rogers deserved a better fate yesterday Rogers had 24 whiffs in 48 swings and got at least seven whiffs with each of his three pitches. He gave up four runs on five hits, though, as the Mets grouped their hits well. Rogers only allowed an average exit velo of 80.9 mph, but the BABIP gods were not on his side.

For his part, David Peterson actually had 19 whiffs on 43 swings over 5.1 scoreless innings. He’s not a big swing-and-miss guy overall, though the slider is one of the best in baseball at generating whiffs. Opposing batters are hitting .167 with a .241 SLG and a 52.5% Whiff% on the pitch. I have no idea why he only throws it 26% of the time, but that pitch’s usage is up to 29.5% in June, so that’s worth watching.

Cubs/Pirates: The Cubs offense will be part of this week’s Regression Report article in Point Spread Weekly, but they did not experience any move towards the positive side yesterday. They scored one run and lost 12-1 to the Pirates, who got an immediate shot in the arm from Oneil Cruz. The 6-foot-7 shortstop did a lot of special things and drove in four runs.

The Cubs had 10 hits with an xBA of .314. The Pirates had 11 hits with an xBA of .310. The difference? Chicago was 1-for-9 with RISP and Pittsburgh was 7-for-15. 

Giants/Braves: We got a good pitcher’s duel in Atlanta between Logan Webb and Max Fried. The starters combined for 15 strikeouts and just two walks (both Fried) in the 2-1 game that cashed an easy under ticket. Webb did allow nine hard-hit balls and three barrels. His command has been a touch iffy of late. He’s allowed a 46.9% Hard Hit% in his last six starts with nine barrels allowed, including three last night. Just something to watch. The increased K% has given him a little more margin for error.

Cardinals/Brewers: We saw no ill effects of the 129-pitch effort from Miles Mikolas, who just got outpitched by Corbin Burnes. Mikolas worked 6.1 solid innings and hit the 100-pitch mark again. Burnes struck out 10 over seven scoreless innings and Josh Hader got the save in his return. I still think this workload will catch up with Mikolas very soon, along with some of his regression signs. He’s slated to face the Cubs on Saturday.

Diamondbacks/Padres: Yu Darvish fired seven strong, as the Padres began life without Manny Machado with a victory. Machado has still not been officially placed on the IL, so maybe the injury isn’t nearly as bad as it looked. Still, we saw a good bit of money against San Diego in this one that went down in flames. Zach Davies only allowed four hits, but two were home runs.

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