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MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 5/3

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 3, 2022 11:59 AM
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Offensively, every day feels like Groundhog Day across Major League Baseball. Even with just eight games yesterday, 12 out of the 16 teams scored three or fewer runs and three teams got shut out. Three games did go over the total and those were the three lowest totals on the board at 6.5, with two of them getting to just seven runs.

It sure feels like there is no end in sight for the offensive drought. It’s just the environment that we have for handicapping and it has forced a lot of adjustments on both sides of the counter. I hate to keep harping on it, both because it’s been talked about at length and because I, too, want the excitement of offense and home runs. But, hey, at least the league doesn’t have an image problem to worry about or anything.

Yesterday’s Recap

Diamondbacks/Marlins: More often than not, I get more upset leaving winners off of the card than making bad picks. I liked Arizona yesterday, expecting Zac Gallen to pitch well against the Marlins. My holdup was the bullpen. Well, Gallen tired in the seventh and gave up a couple and Noe Ramirez followed suit by giving up a couple more. Arizona held on, but it was very dicey, which was the very thing I was afraid of. When you evaluate your bets and thoughts the morning after, these are the types of things you think about.

Angels/White Sox: At the end of yesterday’s game, the White Sox had one batter in the lineup hitting over .246. It was leadoff hitter Tim Anderson. Chicago’s offensive output has been hampered by injuries, but the longer this team can hold on and not get buried in the AL Central, the better it will be for futures betting. Dylan Cease struck out 11 and only allowed one hit over seven innings and did so in just 93 pitches.

Mike Trout was 0-for-4 with four strikeouts in the game. It was the first time Trout struck out in all four plate appearances since Aug. 7, 2016. He’s struck out four times in five PA twice since then. Just in case you were wondering.

Twins/Orioles: Chris Paddack stayed hot and the Twins have won 10 of their last 11 games. Paddack gave up one run on four hits over 5.1 innings to lower his ERA to 3.15 with a 1.93 FIP. I still don’t know about the sustainability of this for Paddack. He allowed 12 hard-hit balls out of the 16 in play and the Orioles were 4-for-11 with a sac fly on them, so he got a bit fortunate. The Twins have increased his curveball usage, which is a positive given the results on his fastball. I remain skeptical, but do see why there has been progress.

Yankees/Blue Jays: Yesterday’s lone play was a winner on the under in this huge AL East matchup. Both teams were quite aggressive in this one, as the Blue Jays drew the game’s only two walks and 25 of 53 balls in play were 95 + mph. The Blue Jays were 1-for-8 with RISP again, a topic that I’ll write about for this week’s Point Spread Weekly. But, when you look at league-wide offense, these two teams and their respective hard-hit rates are the best indicators we have of just how bad it really is.

Mariners/Astros: Some of Marco Gonzales’s regression showed up on Monday with three runs allowed over six innings. That 4.50 ERA upped his season mark to 4.05, but he still has a 6.43 FIP, so it seems like there are more bad days ahead. He’s a guy that the market is looking to fade on the heels of a 2021 season in which he posted a 3.96 ERA with a 5.28 FIP. I think most of the notable line moves will come in road starts, so if you want to bet against him, do it the night before.

Rays/Athletics: Why shouldn’t we overreact to small sample sizes? Because the A’s have a .193/.254/.302 slash with a league-low .251 wOBA over the last 14 days. Water really does find its level over the course of 162 games and it took a much shorter period of time for the Oakland offense to completely bottom out and for this team to look as bad as most of us expected. They had two hits last night against Drew Rasmussen and the Rays bullpen.

Royals/Cardinals: I don’t really know what to make of Zack Greinke. He only had three whiffs on 46 swings yesterday, but still allowed just one run on three hits. Through five starts covering 28 innings, Greinke has a 2.57 ERA with a 4.04 FIP. He has only struck out seven of 107 batters, but has also only issued three walks. His Hard Hit% is almost 10% higher than any other season, but it hasn’t negatively affected him yet. His SwStr% is under 5%. But, somehow, he’s surviving. I don’t think this can continue, but it’s one of the weirdest pitching seasons I’ve ever seen.

Tuesday Resources

Weather: Rain is a factor in a few places, including Cleveland and Detroit. If the Guardians and Padres get the game in, winds will be blowing out to LF. Winds are also forecasted to blow out on a dreary evening in Denver. The Cubs/White Sox game has 20 mph winds blowing in from LF, hence the total of 6.5.

Injuries: Check out our Injury Report right here at VSiN. Also, my friend @MLBDream on Twitter put together a great MLB beat writer list to follow. 

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