MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 5/24

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 24, 2022 11:08 AM
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We’re back to a fully-loaded slate for Tuesday with all 30 teams set to be in action. All of the games are in the evening and nighttime hours as well, so that gives us plenty of time to survey the card, including some outstanding pitching matchups on the docket. We do have quite a few -150 or higher favorites in the games that don’t feature top-notch pitching matchups.

Over the last seven days, the league is batting .252/.315/.404 with a 21.8% K% and a 7.8% BB%. The game is subject to a ton of batted ball variance and sequencing right now with a rate of balls in play that we haven’t seen since 2017-18.

That gives us a lot to talk about, so let’s dive right in.

Yesterday’s Recap

Rockies/Pirates: I’m very upset with myself for not playing the under in this game. As you’ll see in Point Spread Weekly and as you heard on The Run Line on Sunday night, PNC Park has just not been a good venue for offense this season. Even with Chad Kuhl and JT Brubaker, the Road Rockies should have pushed me to an under. With one run against Brubaker and the Buccos bullpen, the Rox have scored 42 runs in 16 road games. That’s 2.63 runs per game. They have now allowed 5.6 runs per game on the road, so maybe their team total under is the way to go, but they badly miss Coors Field away from home.

To make matters worse, the Rockies have played 25 games at home and now just 16 on the road, so maybe this is something we need to focus on during the road trip.

Cubs/Reds: There was a lot of bad pitching on display in this game, as the teams combined for eight barrels and 11 runs on 13 hits. This is also mentioned in my Point Spread Weekly article, but Great American Ball Park is one of just a handful of ballparks playing true to form. All five homers were barrels and we had two other doubles. This is about the only park not suppressing power numbers on barrels this season and, fortunately, the over got there.

Dodgers/Nationals: Tyler Anderson took a perfect game into the sixth and had eight strikeouts in eight innings to lower his ERA to 3.30. Anderson has always had solid spin rates and some interesting under-the-hood metrics. His career Hard Hit% is just 30.8%. He just had to get the hell out of Colorado and get away from a toxic Pittsburgh organization. He had 21 whiffs on 66 swings in this start and continued to dominate with his changeup. I don’t think this is a fluke at all. He’s legit and might be cheaper to bet on than a lot of the other Dodger starters.

Phillies/Braves: The Phillies entered play on Monday with the biggest gap between actual record and 3rd Order Win% record. They’ve lost a lot of one-run games and have played a tough schedule. I’m still not a believer in the bullpen, but there is reason to believe this team can improve. Zack Wheeler had 20 whiffs on 49 swings and looked every bit the ace that he can be in this 7-3 win.

The Braves, meanwhile, just continue to disappoint. The more I think about what the Phillies could be capable of as the weather warms up, the more I wonder if 6/1 to win the NL East is worth it. I just wonder if they can piecemeal together a worthwhile bullpen at the Trade Deadline.

Brewers/Padres: The Brewers had the bases loaded and nobody out in the fourth inning and the 10th inning and failed to score both times, so they lost 3-2. They didn’t really hit Nick Martinez as I had hoped, so maybe it’s wasn’t a great handicap, but what a maddening way to lose. Also, Josh Hader never pitched in a close game, as Craig Counsell opted to go with other guys. Maddening as well, but that’s been his standard operating procedure with Hader. He only uses him with a lead.

Mets/Giants: Alex Cobb’s batted ball woes continued in this start against the Mets. He gave up singles of 73.7, 76.7 and 77.1 mph and a two-run double that was hit at 84.7 mph and had an xBA of .010. Sure, Pete Alonso hit a missile out of the ballpark and all six hard-hit balls went for hits, but Cobb is getting about as unlucky as anybody on balls in play this season. He’s a play-on guy going forward because this can’t possibly continue, but it’s remarkably frustrating for those that handicap like I do.

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