MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 5/17

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 17, 2022 11:54 AM
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There are 18 games on an enormous MLB card for today. We’ve got two doubleheaders as a result of canceled games from the late start to the season and one because of a rainout in Queens yesterday. That gives us a lot to digest for May 17 to say the least.

Yesterday’s Recap

Nationals/Marlins: Influential bettors don’t seem to have much of a handle on the Marlins right now. A lot of line moves have been incorrect with this team, including yesterday’s when the Nats took early money as a big money and lost 8-2. Sandy Alcantara threw eight excellent innings at home in the winning effort and the Marlins banged out 16 hits and had two four-run innings. The Marlins are a tough team to figure out right now, so I’m not entirely surprised about their line moves and results, but it is something I’ll continue to monitor.

Pirates/Cubs: I talked about this game on my Rush Hour spot with Danny Burke (no relation) yesterday. Danny mentioned how the line crept up throughout the day with Wade Miley on the mound. Miley, like Jordan Lyles, Zach Davies, Erick Fedde and guys of that ilk, is usually getting bet against in the market. When money is coming in on him to drive a number up or down, that says a lot to me. The Cubs were clearly the right side in the 9-0 win.

Braves/Brewers: The Brewers offense will be part of this week’s Regression Report, but both offenses had a rough day yesterday. The game ended 1-0 after 10 strikeouts from Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta over seven innings and one of Ian Anderson’s best starts of the season. There were only 36 total balls in play and only 12 hard-hit balls. The Braves struck out 16 times in 29 at bats. This offense has been hurt by the deadened baseball, but also by a high whiff rate.

Giants/Rockies: Another over at Coors Field, even with an inflated total of 12. The Giants came away with the 7-6 win in a back-and-forth battle. There were 13 runs and 20 hits in the game, but based on the contact quality for each team, Statcast had the Giants down for a xBA of .215 and the Rockies at .290.

Antonio Senzatela hurt his back and left after two good innings. The bullpen had to shoulder a big load. Daniel Bard has pitched back-to-back days and Lucas Gilbreath, Ashton Goudeau and Tyler Kinley would be working three in four if they pitch today. Just something to follow with the Rox this week.

Diamondbacks/Dodgers: I gave a lot of thought to Diamondbacks + 1.5 yesterday and spent a lot of time glad that I didn’t take it, but then David Peralta’s ninth-inning homer made that bet a winner. The Dodgers have now won back-to-back one-run games after going 20-0 on the run line in victories to start the season.

Madison Bumgarner did experience some regression with three runs allowed over five innings, but he gave up all three runs in the fifth. He continues to pitch well and limit hard contact, more evidence of the incredible job Brent Strom is doing. I’ll touch on that in this week’s Point Spread Weekly.

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