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MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/26

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

April 26, 2022 12:08 PM
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After a short slate on Monday, we get the full MLB menu on Tuesday and all of the games will be played at night. We’ve got some really lopsided pitching matchups, but also several pitching matchups that look pretty interesting.

For a few quick housekeeping things, I’ll have a piece in Point Spread Weekly this week about handicapping bullpens, so I’d encourage you to check that out. Next week, I’ll start putting together “The Regression Report” for both PSW and also a segment on The Run Line, the MLB show I do with Ben Wilson on Sundays from 8-10 p.m. ET. Holden Kushner will be on the desk again this week while Ben handled his Vegas Knight Hawks play-by-play duties. Lastly, check out that $59 Summer Special. I’ve seen the NFL Draft Betting Guide and it is tremendous, but we’ll also have lots of NBA and NHL Playoffs, feature articles and will keep rolling out cool betting tools for subscribers. Sign up HERE.

Yesterday’s Recap

Giants/Brewers: I’ve never really barreled up a baseball, but if it feels as good as when you nail a handicap, it has to be special. The Giants and Brewers put a huge scare into our Under 7 in a game that was 1-0 through seven innings, but as forecasted, Milwaukee did not use Devin Williams or Josh Hader and the Giants came back off of the bullpen. They won’t all work out as well as that one did, but it was nice to read a game perfectly. It just shows the value of critical thinking, being organized and being observant, all traits I’m hoping to convey to readers with this article because I want you to be able to see all of this on your own.

Rockies/Phillies: Maybe Kyle Gibson’s early increase in strikeouts and whiffs isn’t an anomaly. He had 17 more swings and misses yesterday over 5.2 innings against the Rockies. He only had four strikeouts, but his slider generated 10 whiffs on 17 swings and has a 48.9% Whiff Rate this season. His sinker Whiff Rate is what will drop and the pitch that will regress for him, but he’s had great results on it so far. Gibson ranks in 85th percentile in Hard Hit% and 82nd percentile in Whiff%. I’m not sure how long this can really last, but he’s a completely different pitcher if those things hold.

Mets/Cardinals: The Cardinals are now batting just .222/.303/.311 against RHP. They got to Trevor May to take a 2-0 lead, but gave up five runs in the top of the ninth to drop a 5-2 decision. I feel like this angle has legs. Max Scherzer will shut down a lot of teams, but he hasn’t been the only one to neutralize this St. Louis offense. Admittedly, we got lucky with the Mets pick yesterday, but the handicap on STL vs. RHP was correct. They only had one hard-hit ball against Scherzer and struck out 10 times.

On the plus side for the Redbirds, Miles Mikolas was awesome over seven shutout innings. They need more of that with Jack Flaherty still on the mend.

Dodgers/Diamondbacks: I’m pleased to say that my dude Merrill Kelly held his own against a potent Dodgers lineup, throwing a quality start with three earned runs over six innings. He would have had to be perfect against Walker Buehler to have a chance, as Buehler struck out 10 and threw the first complete game of the season. The Diamondbacks offense is still rough, but I’ll look at the glass half-full and think about how we can back Kelly moving forward.

Red Sox/Blue Jays: Before we get excited about Jose Berrios allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings, let’s look at the context. He allowed 11 more hard-hit balls of 95 + mph. The Red Sox were only 4-for-11 with three singles and a double on those batted balls, including a Kike Hernandez barrel that wound up a lazy fly ball. Maybe I’m harping too much on hard contact with what we know about the ball and its lack of carry this season, but it just shows that a pitcher is not locating well and it will hurt them in the long run. It already has hurt Berrios this season, but it didn’t yesterday. I’m still looking for spots to fade him.

Also, it would appear that Boston is just fine on the vaccine front with the position player group. Trevor Story didn’t play, but was not placed on the restricted list. The only guy the Red Sox appear to be missing is reliever Kutter Crawford. Tanner Houck can’t start in Toronto, so he’ll probably start on Friday in Baltimore.

Guardians/Angels: Shane Bieber had a slight uptick in velo going 6.1 innings against the Angels on Monday, but gave up a couple homers and three runs on seven hits. He only had six strikeouts and only 13 whiffs in 45 swings. The stats look good over his four starts, but I’m still concerned about the lack of velo. As my buddy Gage noted on Twitter, fastball velo matters a lot to Bieber. (https://twitter.com/GageEHC/status/1518798084632842240) His xwOBA (expected wOBA) on fastballs of 93 + mph is .292. Under 93, it’s .393. That is a huge difference and a red flag going forward.

Tuesday Resources

Weather: The wind isn’t really blowing in at a decent clip anywhere today. There are a couple of games where precipitation could be a big factor, all on the East Coast in Philly, Washington and NYC. Winds blowing out tonight in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago, Atlanta and San Francisco, but we don’t have much warm weather to help ball flight.

By the way, Eno Sarris (and Ken Rosenthal) at The Athletic wrote a great piece on the new baseball, the humidor and the weather effects we’ve seen so far. Find one of those $1 a month subscription offers for there. Eno’s column alone is worth it, but reading what the team beat writers have to say will be worth the low cost.

Injuries: Check out our Injury Report right here at VSiN. Also, my friend @MLBDream on Twitter put together a great MLB beat writer list to follow. 

The biggest injury update today is that Jacob deGrom is on the mend and will start throwing soon. In other pitcher news, Andrew Heaney and Blake Treinen are not yet throwing, so the two Dodgers will take a little while to get back.

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