MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 8/4

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

August 4, 2022 12:08 PM
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We’ve got an unusually busy Thursday card in MLB with a doubleheader in St. Louis and 11 other matchups. Some new faces make their debuts in new places and some rotation fixtures look to keep rolling right along for their respective teams. It looks like a fun day on the diamond, with four day games on the card and the rest at night.

Let’s go ahead and get to all the action.

Yesterday’s Recap

Phillies/Braves: A nice win for the Phils behind Zack Wheeler and some solid relief work yesterday. The Phillies have watched teams come back against their bullpen all season, but they did it to Atlanta yesterday with a 3-1 win. Both Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton were solid on getaway day, but Philly’s pen was better than Atlanta’s and David Robertson was very sharp in his Phillies debut.

The Braves may have been looking ahead a tad to this five-game series with the Mets that starts today.

Reds/Marlins: Sandy Alcantara worked around 14 hard-hit balls in a complete game shutout of the Reds. He only had three strikeouts, so this wasn’t some sort of dominant performance, but it will certainly help his Cy Young case. It was the second straight start with a Hard Hit% of 50% or higher and his third in four starts. For the season, his HH% is 38.8%, but it’s 44.8% over his last nine starts, though four of them have been against the Mets. The others have been the Cardinals, Angels, Phillies, Pirates and Reds.

I’m not saying we’ll get rich fading Alcantara, but I think better lineups will get him with the way he’s locating. I have some concerns. His 158.1 innings are 19.1 IP more than anybody else in baseball (Aaron Nola). If he doesn’t wear down this season, I’d look for an injury next year.

Brewers/Pirates: A slugfest in Pittsburgh fell the way of the underdog Pirates again, as they walked off against Devin Williams in an 8-7 win. Freddy Peralta wasn’t terribly sharp in his 3.2 innings and newcomers Jake McGee and Matt Bush each allowed two runs. Milwaukee’s offense battled back, but Bryan Reynolds hit Williams’ third pitch out of the park. It’ll take some time for the new pitchers to settle in for Milwaukee. I’m not terribly concerned.

Rockies/Padres: I said if we got one run from the Rockies, I’d be pretty optimistic about yesterday’s 1st 5 over. We did get one run from Colorado, but after the Padres hit the 1st 5 over in the first inning. Brandon Drury’s first-pitch grand slam made it a 5-0 game and the party raged on in Gaslamp Quarter. It’s the Rockies, but we saw how Josh Bell and Juan Soto lengthen the lineup with two walks each. We’ll see if the bullpen holds up, but the Padres look like a lot of fun and face the Dodgers after one more with the Rockies.

Dodgers/Giants: Another day, another loss for the Giants. San Francisco was shut out by Julio Urias and the Dodgers pen. Urias had 19 whiffs in his six innings. Alex Cobb had 16 in his 6.1 innings and pitched well, but got no offensive support. I can’t believe how far this Giants team has fallen. I really liked them to keep the positive vibes rolling this season, but they may end up a punching bag for the Dodgers and Padres and I’m curious how invested they’ll be the rest of the way.

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