MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 7/7

By Adam Burke  ( 

July 7, 2022 12:17 PM

There’s running bad and then there’s running bad with what happened in the Yankees/Pirates game. Holding an under 8.5 ticket, the game went into the fifth at 0-0, the sixth at 2-0, the seventh at 4-0 and suddenly ended 16-0. The “That escalated quickly” gif from Anchorman has never been more appropriate.

These are the days that you remember as a bettor. You don’t really recall the good streaks because they feel like they should happen all the time. You do recall that bad streaks, specifically one that feature a good-looking under that almost doubled the total with one team scoring all of the runs. Minimizing the hard times is the skill required to have some success in this business and that has been easier said than done.

Here’s to hoping today’s the day the misery ends.

Yesterday’s Recap

Cubs/Brewers: Josh Hader knows what I’m going through. He’s given up a run in two straight appearances to raise his season ERA from 1.05 to 1.63. Credit to the Cubs, who have really been battling lately. Some bad teams have rolled over and died. The Cubs? They’re 6-2 in their last eight games, including series wins against the Red Sox and Brewers. Dog days indeed, but I guess it’s a good idea to look for teams that are showing some dog in them.

Mets/Reds: Under bettors took one on the chin here yesterday with a five-spot from the Mets in the 10th inning to take the game over 10 with an 8-3 win for New York. The Mets were 2-for-13 with RISP prior to the 10th and the Reds finished 1-for-10 with RISP, so it would’ve been a lucky under, but still. The Reds also blew a save in the ninth to send it to extras. That feels like the sort of loss that lingers into the next day and the Reds are playing two today against the Pirates.

Nationals/Phillies: We did not see the Aaron Nola ace bump with Josiah Gray on the hill for Washington and he outpitched Nola with a 3-2 win. Gray struck out 11 over six innings and dropped his ERA to 4.14. Like I’ve said before, the market is fond of him and starts like last night’s are a good example as to why. Nola gave up two runs in the seventh and now has a .505 SLG against and a 6.67 ERA the third time through the lineup.

Cardinals/Braves: Miles Mikolas gave up 13 hard-hit balls in six innings, but only allowed three runs on five hits and two of the hits left the ballpark. The Cardinals defense is absolutely a weapon and it’s an important reminder to consider Hard Hit% in the context of the defense as well. Max Fried was solid over six. The Cardinals had a .349 wOBA against LHP in April, a .346 in May, a .323 in June and now have a .298 in July.  They’re still above average in that split, but not on the torrid pace they were.

Giants/Diamondbacks: Huge win for the Giants last night. They were lifeless again for seven innings before scoring five off of the Diamondbacks bullpen. Merrill Kelly only allowed two hits over his 6.1 innings, but the Giants got five runs on four hits and two walks off of Joe Mantiply and Sean Poppen. I still can’t really trust this team, but they’ve saved themselves with some of those types of wins this season.

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