MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 6/23

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 23, 2022 11:05 AM
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It’s a Thursday that kind of feels like a Sunday with the majority of the schedule starting bright and early, at least out here in the Pacific Time Zone. Four games start for me between 9:10 and 9:35 and another one with my version of the Kardiac Kids starts at 10:10 as the Guardians look for a sweep.

I’ll try to make this quick and get it out prior to the start of as many games as possible.

Yesterday’s Recap

Diamondbacks/Padres: I want to say that there are signs of regression with the Padres, but their offense is actually performing better and the pitching staff remains really solid. Maybe this team is just that good with a legit manager in Bob Melvin, an elite pitching coach in Ruben Niebla and an offense that is putting it all together. Of course, they do bash lefties and Madison Bumgarner had some negative regression signs in his profile.

The Padres are 26-11 against teams with losing records and 18-16 against teams .500 or better. That’s honestly a really good recipe for making the playoffs. Beat up on the bad teams, hang in there against the good ones.

Dodgers/Reds: Tyler Anderson gave up four runs on five hits in five innings and got pulled after 81 pitches yesterday. That wasn’t overly surprising coming off of his no-hit bid. Keep an eye on those pitchers coming off of 110 + pitches. Starters don’t do that much anymore and it can be hard to bounce back.

Rockies/Marlins: Another high-scoring game down in Miami came as a bit of a surprise, but it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Marlins knocked around Chad Kuhl a bit. Kuhl still has a sub-4 ERA, but I don’t really expect that to last. Since May 11, he has a 5.59 ERA with a 4.81 FIP. You’ll have exceptions like Martin Perez, but most guys ultimately show their true colors, especially if there’s no noteworthy usage change in the arsenal.

Cubs/Pirates: This is NOT an endorsement to follow every line move, but this one was very telling. The Cubs have been awful for a prolonged period of time, but the projection for Jerad Eickhoff was so bad that the Cubs touched as high as -140 on the road against the Pirates. Eickhoff was bombed to the tune of 10 runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings and Keegan Thompson cruised for Chicago. Line moves, especially big, obvious, noteworthy ones, are typically right.

Giants/Braves: There haven’t been many times when I’ve opted for a 1st 5 side, and especially at the cost of 20-25 cents, but yesterday was the right time to do it and the Giants bullpen did blow the game. Bullpen fatigue isn’t a one-day thing either. It can have a lingering effect. When you see a bullpen that has been worked a lot, it will be a multi-day consideration until there’s an off day, blowout or a starter works a CG.

The Giants won the 1st 5 and lost the game. I got lucky that Charlie Morton gave up two solo homers because he actually pitched extremely well with 11 K over seven innings. Carlos Rodon had 10 over seven and didn’t give up a run until the seventh. It was nice that the handicap worked out, but I need to recalibrate with Morton after another strong outing.

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