MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 6/2

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 2, 2022 12:26 PM
USATSI_18372074

Onward we go into a June 2 card that features 12 games because of a doubleheader in the Bronx. Because the Dodgers are done playing the Pirates, we only have one favorite that is close to touching -200 on the board today. Of course, the Pirates also just swept the Dodgers in a three-game series at Dodger Stadium to remind us that anything is possible on any given day and that variance is a very real, very omnipresent thing in MLB.

Yesterday’s Recap

Nationals/Mets: Hitters slump all the time, but Juan Soto is mired in a .138/.315/.259 slump over his last 73 plate appearances. He only has eight hits (four 2B and a HR, though) and has scored just three runs in the last 17 games. We know the pitching isn’t any good. The offense was pretty decent for a while, but that has stopped. The Nationals have played more games than most teams, but have the most losses in baseball with 34.

Padres/Cardinals: The Cardinals finally got to Yu Darvish late in the game and came away with a 5-2 victory over a Padres team that I need to be fading more aggressively. Dakota Hudson’s signs of regression are almost always there with a low ERA and a high FIP, but he’s made a career out of doing that and allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings. The Padres did not make a lot of solid contact in this series and their offense is really starting to stand out as not being very good.

Marlins/Rockies: Both games of the doubleheader flew over the total yesterday. Edward Cabrera pitched well in Game 1, while Antonio Senzatela did not. Neither starter pitched well in the 13-12 nightcap, which was almost 2.5 times higher than the 10.5 total. German Marquez was awful again with seven runs allowed on seven hits, including three homers, in five innings. I would have faded him if not for the doubleheader considerations. Hopefully we get opportunities soon because he’s not right.

Braves/Diamondbacks: The 1st 5 over was one of yesterday’s two losers, as the -2.25 day was my worst of the season. It’s been a real struggle lately. The Braves left men on second and third in the first, second in the second, second in the third and first and second in the fourth, so they left five men in scoring position in the first four innings.

Arizona left two on in the third, had a guy thrown out on a ground ball to SS on a leadoff double in the fourth before getting two more guys on and had two on in the fifth before an inning-ending double play. Baseball is a game of variance. A game of timing. Of sequencing. Of frustration. We’re at the mercy of when hits happen and when they don’t and they didn’t happen at the right times here, but we had enough traffic to win this bet.

Giants/Phillies: I thought long and hard about taking the Phillies yesterday, but betting on their bullpen is the ultimate trust fall. Well, their bullpen held for a 6-5 win after the offense put up a four-spot in the sixth to answer San Francisco’s five-run outburst. Jean Segura is out for a while and Bryce Harper hasn’t played the last two days, so the Phillies have more problems than just the pitching staff, but at least they finally held on to one.

Brewers/Cubs: The Cubs bullpen fired five shutout innings with 10 strikeouts yesterday to help Chicago to a 4-3 win in extras. This bullpen has really been good for the last few weeks now and ranks eighth in fWAR. The Cubs are 21-29, but 13 of their losses have come in one-run games. They’re not as uncompetitive as the record makes them look. Of their 11 losses since May 9, only two of them have been by more than two runs. Maybe there’s a little bit of intrigue in backing this team right now.

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