MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 8/6

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

August 6, 2022 12:14 PM
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We’ve got a really packed schedule today, as there are 17 games on the betting board with two doubleheaders, including a big one between the Braves and Mets at Citi Field. The Angels and Mariners will also play a twin bill in Seattle. This is our final Saturday without football until 2023, as we’ll have some NFL preseason the next two weeks, followed by the start of the college football season.

I know we’re all itching for football, but we’ve still got plenty of baseball in the meantime. Remember, no article tomorrow, but I’ll be on The Run Line and reunited with Ben Wilson from 8-10 p.m. ET.

Yesterday’s Recap

Marlins/Cubs: Willson Contreras was inexplicably not traded by Chicago and hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth to propel the Cubs to a 2-1 dub. Justin Steele only made it through 4.2 innings, but that’s because he struck out 10 of the 14 outs he collected, which ran his pitch count up quickly. The Cubs struggled badly against prospect Edward Cabrera for five innings. There wasn’t a lot of contact on the North Side yesterday and Chicago only had three hard-hit balls, but the biggest one of the game.

Nationals/Phillies: The Nationals lost in uncompetitive fashion with a 7-2 defeat at the hands of the Phillies. Josiah Gray gave up six runs on five hits, including four home runs, and now has an ERA of 4.92. I’ve mentioned all the steam on Gray in his starts and, frankly, I don’t get it. He’s had flashes, but he also has a 5.72 FIP with all the homers. There won’t be much equity in fading Washington, but I don’t really see a reason to ever bet on them.

Braves/Mets: It never really became a sweat, but Ian Anderson could have spared his team a lot of unnecessary heartache yesterday. He started to nibble in the fifth and gave up three runs while pitching with an 8-1 lead. The meltdown forced the Braves to use all of their better relievers in advance of a doubleheader today. It’s the little things.

On the plus side, I was dead on about Taijuan Walker, who gave up eight runs on seven hits and only recorded three outs. That was a nice + 125 cash. Walker had three whiffs in 22 swings and had a velo decline throwing 50 pitches in two innings.

Rockies/Diamondbacks: I was also right about Colorado, at least for 6.5 innings. German Marquez was solid in six innings, but then the bullpen melted in the seventh and eighth for a 6-5 loss. This probably could’ve been avoided if Bud Black managed his bullpen better. Top reliever Daniel Bard never even pitched, as he opted to use Lucas Gilbreath and Alex Colome for the third time in four days. This is why defined bullpen roles are archaic. Go get two innings out of Bard and give yourself the best chance to win the game. You’re probably going to lose in a Merrill Kelly vs. Antonio Senzatela matchup today, so make it a point to win with a lead.

Right handicap, wrong result, good underdog price down the drain.

Padres/Dodgers: I’ve mentioned how some teams have a “LeBron Complex” in MLB. When LBJ was with the Cavs, they slapped down anybody seeking a shot at the crown. They weren’t always invested, but when they had to be, they were. The Dodgers have had some stunning series results, but they’ve seemed to really step up against the Padres and Giants. They did last night with an 8-1 win behind a strong effort from Tony Gonsolin. It was a wire-to-wire job with four in the first and four in the third off of Sean Manaea, who gave up eight runs on 10 hits. He’s become the weak link of this rotation.

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