MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 6/25

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 25, 2022 10:11 AM
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The Saturday MLB card starts at 1 and we’ll have action right on through the midnight hour, at least if you’re in the Eastern or Central Time Zones. We’ve got quite a few good matchups and a lot of top-of-the-rotation pitchers on the betting board for June 25, so let’s dive right in with an abbreviated version of the daily MLB article.

Yesterday’s Recap

Mets/Marlins: Taijuan Walker really did outshine Sandy Alcantara in this matchup last night. Walker had 14 whiffs over his six innings, while Alcantara managed just six whiffs in 51 swings and allowed 11 hard-hit balls in his seven innings of work. He didn’t walk anybody, but Alcantara’s command just wasn’t up to snuff. Given that he came into the start with a 1.72 ERA, a 2.59 xERA and a 2.84 FIP, some modest regression was to be expected. He also became the first (and only) pitcher to cross 100 innings this season.

I’m a little wary of him moving forward, just because he seems to be pitching above his true potential a bit, but I’d rather fade him on the road if anything.

Dodgers/Braves: Julio Urias had it all working for the Dodgers yesterday. It only took him 94 pitches to get through six innings of one-hit ball and he struck out nine. The story remains the same for the Braves – any pitcher with swing-and-miss upside has a chance to shut them down. That’s true of Urias. He had 20 whiffs in 47 swings for an awesome 43% Whiff%.

Ian Anderson, meanwhile, walked four and struck out six in four innings. Efficiency is not a thing for him against patient and productive lineups. He’s a guy you can really only back against bad offenses and the problem there is that the Braves have big favorite prices.

Cubs/Cardinals: How about Kyle Hendricks with 7.1 excellent innings against the Cardinals? Every now and then, you see flashes of what he used to be and yesterday was one of those days. St. Louis only had six hard-hit balls on 20 balls in play. The Cardinals are still a team that you want to be careful backing against righties.

Phillies/Padres: MacKenzie Gore got through five innings, but his fastball velocity was down once again. He walked four and the Phillies squandered some chances, so I’ll still be looking for chances to fade him moving forward. Gore’s FB velo was down 1.8 mph from his season average. The Phillies were only 2-for-7 on hard-hit balls with a couple of singles. He got very fortunate. He may not be as lucky next time out or when he goes out on the road again.

Tough beat here on the Phillies. They had three barreled balls that were all outs, including the final out off the bat of Kyle Schwarber and went 0-for-8 with RISP.

Astros/Yankees: Justin Verlander didn’t have the strikeout stuff going, but his lone blemish over seven solid innings was a Giancarlo Stanton solo homer. Verlander’s velo was up a little bit and so were his spin rates as he reached back for a little extra in a big game off of Thursday’s demoralizing loss. New York did hit some balls hard off of Verlander and had better contact quality than the Astros, but managed just that lone homer in the sixth.

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