MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 5/21

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 21, 2022 10:25 AM
USATSI_18242027

Sixteen games are on the betting board for today and the Mets have another doubleheader, their second one this week and third since May 8. I’m not sure what the full impact is for today, but those are things that really can catch up with a team, especially with fewer off days right now league-wide.

Remember, no article on Sundays with all the day games. I’ll be hosting The Run Line with special guest Josh Towers tomorrow night from 8-10 p.m. ET. Please tune in and have some fun with us.

I’m filling in to host Betting Across America today from 12-3 p.m. ET with my good pal Femi Abebefe, so the intro is short and sweet. Let’s get down to business.

Yesterday’s Recap

Diamondbacks/Cubs: With winds in excess of 20 mph blowing out, it was not a fun day to pitch at Wrigley Field. Kyle Hendricks gave up seven runs on eight hits (four homers) in five innings. D-Backs reliever Noe Ramirez was the only one of the seven pitchers not to allow a run, as there were 11 home runs hit in the game. Arizona came away with a 10-6 decision and Josh Rojas hit three of the home runs.

Take the Hendricks outing with a few grains of salt to some degree, though it’s not like he’s pitched well this season.

Cardinals/Pirates: “In play, runs.” I saw that way too much for my liking while sweating this total with my wife and Mike Pritchard at a Happy Hour downtown. A 1-0 game after five innings became a massive sweat thanks to two ineffective bullpens. I owe Giovanny Gallegos a fruit basket (if I can borrow one from the Prime Time Action crew). Adam Wainwright only had five whiffs on 45 swings over his 98 pitches. Pitchers just aren’t as worried about pitching to contact anymore and we’re seeing it on a daily basis.

Braves/Marlins: Bullpens are such a crazy thing. In the Braves/Marlins game, all eight runs were scored off of the starters, as Trevor Rogers gave up five in four innings and Charlie Morton gave up three in 5.1 frames. The pens pitched scoreless ball and the Braves won 5-3. Atlanta barreled seven balls in this game with three doubles, three homers and a fly out. I still feel like they’re on the verge of a run.

Dodgers/Phillies: I know the Dodgers are a great team, but that was a strong win yesterday. Traveling west to east can be tricky, but Julio Urias threw five solid innings and the Dodgers did enough off of Ranger Suarez to be in the driver’s seat. Urias only threw 80 pitches, though and had a velocity decrease and a big spin rate decrease on his fastball. It looks like the Dodgers are back to babying him after last season’s increased workload. That’s something you absolutely want to keep in mind. It may also have been the decreased velo. There wasn’t a drop late in his start or anything, but it would seem the Dodgers are taking a very cautious approach with him.

Padres/Giants: For the Padres’ bad numbers against sliders, I’m surprised at how Jake Junis and the Giants attacked the lineup yesterday. Junis was 50% sinkers and 45% sliders, but maybe he didn’t like his slider yesterday, as the pitch only got two whiffs on 19 swings. He came into the game throwing 56% sliders, but that wasn’t what we saw yesterday. To be honest, that may have been a fortunate push.

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