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MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 5/14

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 14, 2022 11:48 AM
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A big day of baseball doesn’t start until after 2 p.m. ET, as we’ll have lots of evening and nighttime games to consider on Saturday. As much of a baseball guy as I am, though, we’ve got three Game 7s in the NHL and there is nothing like a decisive game in the hockey playoffs. If you’re not a hockey fan, give them a chance. If you are, then you already know what I’m talking about.

We had three games with 20 or more runs yesterday, as batters collectively put up a .254/.323/.432 slash line and 160 runs across 15 games. With yesterday’s barrage, the slash line for May is now .240/.310/.386, so offense is slowly rising a bit, but, as I mentioned earlier in the week, a lot of that simply has to do with a lower K% as pitchers aren’t scared of contact anymore.

The league’s BA and SLG on high-velocity contact still remain well below previous seasons, so we’re still dealing with the same dead ball. We are seeing more and more from pitchers and teams about the inconsistency of the baseballs within a game, so that merits watching as this continues to be a black mark for the league.

A quick reminder that I don’t do the article on Sundays with all the day games, but you can hear me on The Run Line with Ben Wilson from 8-10 p.m. ET.

Yesterday’s Recap

Reds/Pirates: The Cincinnati offense stayed hot with eight runs against Mitch Keller and the Pirates bullpen. Road Tyler Mahle remained a good bet with six quality innings and eight strikeouts. As dire as things looked for the Reds early on, they’ve been playing great ball over the last week and Mahle should continue to be a guy we can try to make money on away from home.

Brewers/Marlins: We had a filth fest in Miami yesterday in Milwaukee’s 2-1 win. Corbin Burnes and Pablo Lopez combined for 18 strikeouts in 14 innings and just two runs on eight hits. The two had 36 combined whiffs, with 20 for Lopez. His Whiff% on the changeup was 31.3% last season, but it sits at 45.3% this season with increased usage. Will the voters be open to giving the Cy Young to a pitcher on a non-contender? He lowered his ERA to 1.05 in this game and there is nothing in the profile that suggests he can’t remain elite.

Padres/Braves: I never really had any intention of playing San Diego, but I mentioned yesterday how the line move didn’t make sense or feel right. Use some intuition when surveying the market. You know more than you think you do. The Padres won 11-6 thanks to a complete meltdown from the Braves bullpen, but my big takeaway here is that I saw a line move I didn’t agree with and it played out. It won’t always happen, but it may pay off in the long run to trust those reads.

Giants/Cardinals: Yesterday’s picks went 2-1 thanks to this victory with six solid innings from Logan Webb. Interestingly, Webb only had one strikeout in the game, but also only allowed four hard-hit balls. The Cardinals have the fifth-lowest rate of hard-hit balls against right-handed pitchers this season, ahead of the Diamondbacks, Padres, Twins and Reds. Hopefully we can hit this angle a few more times.

Phillies/Dodgers: The Dodgers are in a funk right now, coming up on the short end of a 12-10 decision yesterday. The Phillies got the win, but used six relievers in the process and they’re up against it a bit right now, as Andrew Bellatti, Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia have each worked three of the last four days and Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez and Corey Knebel all pitched back-to-back days Wednesday and Thursday. Just something to keep in mind heading into today’s game.

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