MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 7/11

By Adam Burke  ( 

July 11, 2022 12:50 PM

Seven days of baseball remain before the All-Star Break. These are important games for some teams, while others may go through the motions a little bit as the week progresses. The MLB Draft is July 17 and the Trade Deadline is August 2, so there will be a lot going on with those two events as well.

It’s a busy time for baseball and also a busy time for me with college football. I just finished the first run-through of my power ratings and will have an article coming up to help you create your own. I’m also doing four conferences for our upcoming College Football Betting Guide that comes out the last week of July. For those of you tired of the daily baseball grind, football is coming fast.

I hosted The Run Line last night with Josh Towers. If you missed it, here are the links to listen HOUR 1 | HOUR 2. Let’s get to the Monday article.

Yesterday’s Recap

Nationals/Braves: Going into a massive series with the Mets that starts tonight, Atlanta polished off a sweep of the Nationals. Ian Anderson wasn’t great with four walks, but did only allow two runs on two hits. It’s still a struggle, but his last two starts have been better. The Braves don’t need him to be good, just average.

Atlanta did have to go 12 innings here and had to use Tyler Matzek, Jesse Chavez and Collin McHugh for multiples. AJ Minter has worked three of the last four days. Keep their bullpen in mind this week against the Mets.

Marlins/Mets: Taijuan Walker was terrific in going head-to-head with Sandy Alcantara, but the Marlins outlasted the Mets 2-0 on Sunday. Miami misses Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s bat, but the Fish are 8-3 in their last 11 and are knocking on the door of .500. With a four-gamer against the Pirates at home this week, they have the chance to get there by winning three of four.

The Mets offense has a .302 wOBA over the last 30 days with a .233/.300/.387 slash and a 100 wRC +. The lack of contact quality seems to have caught up with them. Their 103 runs in that span are only better than Washington, the Angels and Oakland. That’s not ideal company. By the way, the Marlins have scored the fourth-fewest runs.

Pirates/Brewers: The Pirates won on both Saturday and Sunday over the Brewers, beating Brandon Woodruff on Saturday. Since the nine-game losing streak from June 7-14, Pittsburgh is 12-13, so they’ve played respectable baseball in the last 25 games. Of their 13 losses, four are by one run and five are by two runs, so they’ve been highly competitive. They’ve also had five one-run wins and three wins by two runs. Tons of close games may eventually take a toll in late August and September.

Phillies/Cardinals: A total of 10 runs were scored in the three-game set at Busch between these two teams. The Cardinals were shut out in the first two games and won 4-3 in the finale. St. Louis is only 3-8 over the last 11 games dating back to June 29. Paul Goldschmidt has not homered in that span over 44 PA and has zero RBI. He’s still slashing .289/.386/.395, but his exit velocity is down to 87 mph. He really carried this offense for a while and nobody else has picked up the slack during his return to earth. Something to consider today and this week I’d say.

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