MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 6/13

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 13, 2022 12:55 PM
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Ten games usher us into a new week on the diamond. We’re about a month removed from when the baseball actually started to carry again, so we’ve finally gotten some worthwhile sample size to think about from the “second season” of the 2022 season. From Opening Day to May 13, teams batted .235/.308/.375 with a .302 wOBA. From May 14 until now, teams are batting .249/.316/.410. The big SLG spike is what has really stood out.

Pitchers may need to go back to focusing on strikeouts instead of pitching to contact like they started to do when the ball was dead. It’s tough to make all of these midseason adjustments as a bettor, but hopefully now we can all settle in to what has become the league’s new normal.

Before I get into today’s article, a reminder to check out The Run Line with myself and host Ben Wilson. Thought we had an excellent show last night and covered a lot of important topics. Give it a listen. (HOUR 1 | HOUR 2)

Yesterday’s Recap

Diamondbacks/Phillies: The Phillies bullpen had mostly stabilized prior to yesterday’s meltdown, but my focus is on Ranger Suarez. He’s the weak link in what has been an outstanding Phillies rotation otherwise. I talked about this on last night’s show, but I’d find a different fifth starter and put Suarez at the back end of the pen, especially with Corey Knebel injured. Suarez has a 4.40 ERA and walked four over 4.1 innings. Instead of trying to get six innings from Suarez one day per week, why not try to get them over three or four days out of the pen?

With Bryce Harper back and swinging it well, the Phillies probably remain a play-on team, especially when the top four in the rotation have FIPs of 2.13 (Wheeler), 3.24 (Nola), 3.64 (Gibson), and 3.43 (Eflin).

Pirates/Braves: Ben and I talked a lot about the Braves on last night’s show. Atlanta turned its winning streak up to 11 with a sweep of the Pirates yesterday. All you can do is beat the teams on the schedule, but the Braves’ streak is comprised of the D-Backs, Rockies, A’s and Pirates. It’s exactly what the team needed to get back in the race, but they faced a lot of low-strikeout pitchers, so the offense played up. The Nationals may not provide much more resistance, but moving forward, we’ll have to see how the Braves fare. They do have the league’s best bullpen, which should go a long way as the season goes along.

Brewers/Nationals: The Brewers may have stopped a skid yesterday, but this team isn’t hitting and is missing two key starting pitchers in Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. Since that May 14 date I referenced above, the Brewers rank 24th in wOBA and it’s been even worse over the last 2-3 weeks. The offense went in the tank and now the pitching has question marks. Tough team to back at present.

Reds/Cardinals: It figures that Dakota Hudson’s regression would show up against the Reds. He gave up six runs on nine hits over seven innings, but he did save the bullpen and that’s huge at this time of the year. The Cardinals nearly came back off of the Cincinnati bullpen, but this was one of the few road-game explosions for the Reds offense, which leads the league in R/G at home.

Dodgers/Giants: What a weekend for the Giants. San Francisco swept the Dodgers in the three-game set at Oracle Park and only allowed four runs over the three games. The Giants have a bunch of pitchers with huge ERA-FIP discrepancies because the defense has been so bad. If San Francisco can figure something out about that, this Giants team is destined for something special. With Walker Buehler out three months now for the Dodgers, they’re showing some cracks.

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