MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/30

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 30, 2022 11:44 AM
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We’ve almost made it through the month of May, and what a month it has been. Teams collectively posted a .231/.307/.369 slash line with a .301 wOBA in the opening month of the season, but the 96 wRC + from that month shows just how much offense has picked up. Remember that wRC + is a metric where 100 is “average” and it is constantly adjusted for park factor and the run environment.

In May, teams are collectively hitting .245/.312/.396 with a .314 wOBA and a 104 wRC +. If we narrow that down to the last 14 days, we’ve seen a big offensive uptick with a .252/.317/.406 slash line, a .319 wOBA and a 108 wRC +. While that stretch would only put us on par with the 2015 or 2018 seasons, at least the ball isn’t as dead as it was.

As a result, bettors have been frantically adjusting, myself included. I would postulate that the “new normal” for the next few months looks a lot like this, or maybe a little bit higher because of the impact higher temperatures and humidity will have on the ball and its ability to carry on fly balls. We’ve also got the lowest K% we’ve seen since 2018, so a lot more balls are being put in play. These are all important things to note as we get ready to close the book on May and head into June.

Yesterday’s Recap

If you didn’t catch it live, please check out two fine hours of radio with host Ben Wilson and yours truly on The Run Line. We talked about regression candidates, futures bets, teams you might want to buy, teams you might want to sell and a whole lot more. (HOUR 1 | HOUR 2 )

Giants/Reds: Tyler Mahle took a no-hitter through 6.2 innings at home, but the Reds still managed to lose 6-4 after a six-run meltdown in the eighth. The Giants are still finding ways to win ballgames despite some shoddy defense and lackluster pitching, which is what good teams do. The Reds? They find ways to lose games, which is exactly what bad teams do. It was yet another over at Great American Ball Park, though. That park has been the only one to play above its true form and I don’t think that stops as the weather warms up.

Rockies/Nationals: Overs were en vogue at Nationals Park this weekend, even with the Road Rockies, who are now finally over three runs per game on the road. This four-game set featured 46 runs, with 18 for the Rockies and 28 for the Nationals. Colorado is 5-15 over the last 20 games after improving to 16-11 on May 7. Some teams will be hurt more by a league-wide offensive increase because of their pitching staffs and the Rockies appear to be one of those teams.

Marlins/Braves: Another strong start for market darling Max Fried, who held the Marlins to one run across six innings. Elieser Hernandez’s home run woes continued by surrendering three long balls. At this point, Hernandez is not bettable on the road. At home, with a park that suppresses power, you could talk me into it. Not on the road. He has now allowed 14 (!!) home runs in 43.2 innings of work, with nine in 19.2 road innings. He’s allowing a .723 SLG on the road. If only the Marlins had a guy like Max Meyer in the minors. They are, at least calling up Edward Cabrera this week.

Brewers/Cardinals: It took a while, but we finally got one of those Miles Mikolas regression games. He allowed six runs on nine hits over 5.2 innings against the Brewers. He was pushed to 115 pitches and the middle innings did him in. Mikolas will not have an extra off day before facing the Cubs at Wrigley on Friday. That may be a spot to fade him.

Dodgers/Diamondbacks: It’s a bummer that the Dodgers are really hard to bet because of their huge prices because Tyler Anderson is a guy that we should be able to bet on at reasonable numbers. He threw six shutout innings yesterday to lower his ERA to 2.90. The 32-year-old with the 4.49 ERA has simply found a home in Dodger Blue, as he ranks in the Top 9% in exit velocity and Top 6% in Hard Hit%. He’s also in the Top 4% in BB% and Top 3% in Chase Rate. Batters are hitting .119 against his changeup with a 44.9% Whiff%, so he’s been able to effectively neutralize righties. What a phenomenal season for the veteran.

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