MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/23

By Adam Burke  ( 

May 23, 2022 12:23 PM

Twelve games are on the schedule to kick off a new week around Major League Baseball. It was a weird and wild weekend with some doubleheaders, some more injuries and some upticks in certain places on the offensive side. I’ll be writing about ballparks and the results on batted balls for this week’s Regression Report in Point Spread Weekly, so you’ll see that late Tuesday or early Wednesday here on the site.

In the meantime, you’ve got today’s daily article and also last night’s episode of The Run Line with my good buddy Jeff Parles filling in for Ben Wilson. Catch the archived version of the show (HOUR 1 | HOUR 2).

Yesterday’s Recap

Cardinals/Pirates: The Cardinals decimated a couple below average righties in Bryse Wilson and Tyler Beede yesterday with an 18-run outburst to almost single-handedly correct some of the low offensive numbers at PNC Park this season. It was a good weekend overall for the Cards, who are now getting elite offensive production from Paul Goldschmidt.

However, St. Louis lost Steven Matz to a shoulder injury just four pitches into the game and face Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Brandon Woodruff and Yu Darvish over the next week and a half.

Dodgers/Phillies: The Dodgers looked like they had their eighth win in a row signed, sealed and delivered, but Max Muncy bobbled a routine grounder and two runs scored to give the Phillies a walk-off win in 10 innings. Tony Gonsolin lowered his ERA to 1.62, but what’s interesting to me is that Zach Eflin had 12 strikeouts with 19 whiffs on 53 swings. That is a great sign for the Phillies going forward.

Braves/Marlins: Matt Olson had two more hard-hit balls on a 0-for-4 night as his slump continued. Olson is a guy that I looked up last night. His Hard Hit% is 47.8%, which is below his career average, which is insane. The guy makes incredible contact, but is batting .155/.290/.392 in his last 69 PA.

His average launch angle is down to 9.6 degrees, about half of 17.3-degree career average. His GB% this season is 50.4%, over 13% higher than his career mark. Olson seems like a guy that is trying to overcompensate for the dead ball. He’s also pulling the ball a lot less. I think he needs to get back to what he does best and that will help the Braves offense start to improve. I’ll be watching this to see if it gets better.

Nationals/Brewers: Freddy Peralta only lasted 59 pitches in his Sunday start and allowed five runs on six hits. Peralta’s velocity was down a bit, but his spin rates weren’t down too much. He still wound up on the IL after the game with shoulder tightness and will have an MRI today. Peralta threw 144.1 innings last season, a huge ramp-up from working out of the pen in 2019 and 2020 with 114.1 combined innings over those two seasons. I worry about young pitchers and their arm health with what COVID did to 2020 and then the return to the full season in 2021. Peralta may just be one of many to miss time.

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