MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/16

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 16, 2022 12:05 PM
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We haven’t seen a lot of busy Mondays in the baseball betting world this season, but we’ve got one today with 13 games on the card. We don’t have any day baseball, but that’s not a bad thing with the NBA and NHL Playoffs on a break until tomorrow. It will give us all something to watch tonight.

If you want something to listen to today, may I recommend the latest edition of The Run Line with host Ben Wilson and yours truly. We had a lot of fun with last night’s show and I think it is getting better each week. You can check it out here. (HOUR 1 / HOUR 2)

Yesterday’s Recap

Padres/Braves: There are some things to digest from both Saturday and Sunday’s games in this series. First, they looked high-scoring, but that was more about the bullpens and less about the starters. Charlie Morton threw six really strong innings with nine strikeouts for his second straight solid start. Maybe the old dog is coming around. In Saturday’s game, Sean Manaea had 12 strikeouts over his seven innings and 23 whiffs. He’s not really known as a big swing-and-miss guy, but this is where I’m going to tease my Point Spread Weekly feature on pitching coaches. Ruben Niebla has had a huge impact on this team and this rotation.

Sunday’s game ended 7-3 thanks to extra innings, as both Kyle Wright and Joe Musgrove fought occasional command concerns to pitch well. The Braves did take money with regularity in this series against the Padres, something I referenced on The Run Line and will write about for next week’s Point Spread Weekly.

Reds/Pirates: Imagine throwing a no-hitter and losing. Astonishing. Hunter Greene and Art Warren accomplished that feat yesterday. Greene threw 118 pitches in search of the no-no, so we’ll probably see him get an extra day or two of rest before his next outing. Overshadowed by the rare feat is that Jose Quintana threw seven shutout innings and has a 2.19 ERA over seven starts and 37 innings. To say I wrote him off would be an understatement, but he does have a 4.49 xERA to go with a 3.40 FIP and 3.91 xFIP. There are regression signs in the profile, but increased changeup usage has been a massive separator.

Brewers/Marlins: The Brewers and Marlins traded blowout victories over the weekend. Brandon Woodruff pitched for Milwaukee on Sunday and still wasn’t himself. He allowed one earned run over five innings with six strikeouts, but also allowed nine hard-hit balls. He’s still working through some things and I’d be wary of backing him at big favorite prices.

Blowouts one way or the other are good for Milwaukee, though, they were able to spare some of their big bullpen arms this weekend while getting ready for this week’s series against the Braves. The Brewers have played one of the worst schedules to this point, so we’ll see what happens with a bump in competition.

Phillies/Dodgers: A tough week for the Dodgers was one strike away from being worse. Los Angeles walked off Philadelphia to avoid a sweep last night, as the Phillies bullpen had another melt. The Dodgers had lost four in a row and five of six. Now they host the Diamondbacks for four games. Focus has been a bit of an issue against inferior teams, but Arizona does already have a series win over LA, so we’ll see if they’re more engaged.

Giants/Cardinals: As we talked about on The Run Line last night, there is a conspiracy theory floating around that the balls for primetime games are different. Yesterday’s 21-run outburst was somewhat fueled by Albert Pujols’s first career pitching appearance, but the Cardinals also rocked Carlos Rodon and the game was over the total by the fourth inning. Next week’s SNB game is White Sox vs. Yankees.

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