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MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 4/25

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

April 25, 2022 11:52 AM
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We’ve got a fairly light slate on Monday to start the last week of April, as there are only seven games on the betting board. While the slate is short on games, it is long on talent, as several aces take the hill for their respective teams. Pitchers are making their fourth starts this week, so we’re starting to get a more significant sample size with each passing day. Hopefully that will yield some good betting angles down the line.

Yesterday’s Recap

Giants/Nationals: Five in a row in the ‘L’ column for the Nats, who have not scored more than three runs in six straight games and have been outscored 39-11 over this five-game stretch with the Marlins coming to town on Tuesday. The emphatic bounce back series from the Giants was rather impressive and they’ll host Washington next week to keep rolling along. Today’s game is a weird one, though, as they’ll face the Brewers in a game rescheduled as a result of the late start to the season. More on that one later.

Marlins/Braves: The Braves continued their weird, disappointing season thus far with a 5-4 loss to the Marlins. Atlanta was 1-for-14 with RISP in the finale and 3-for-26 in the series as a whole. Jesus Luzardo threw five solid innings with eight strikeouts and four walks. Bryce Elder walked six, but had his fair share of swings and misses. Kind of a weird game and weird series, but my big takeaway is that Atlanta is still really talented, just not firing on all cylinders.

Cardinals/Reds: I nearly laid the Cardinals price against a lefty, but noticed that Nick Lodolo had really limited hard contact nicely in his starts to open the year. Well, he didn’t do that on Sunday, as the Cardinals had 12 hard-hit balls against him, but they found fielders and he only allowed one run on five hits. He didn’t walk anybody, though, which was huge. Adam Wainwright’s home/road split issues continued, as he allowed four runs and 11 baserunners over five innings. The Reds probably should have scored more. Wainwright is dynamite at home and below average on the road. Keep that in mind.

Pirates/Cubs: Concern about JT Brubaker is the story here. The Pirates don’t have many reliable hurlers and Brubaker is one. He actually had nine whiffs in 18 swings, but his spin rates were down and his velocity was down substantially. He was yanked after 44 pitches. We’ll see what happens with follow-up testing, but something was clearly not right.

Mets/Diamondbacks: Another strong effort from Tylor Megill with X strikeouts over X innings. Madison Bumgarner continued to locate well and only allowed an unearned run over five innings, but he only had three whiffs on 30 swings. It feels like he’s toeing a thin line right now. He did only allow three batted balls of 95 + mph, though. I’ll have to dig in deeper before his next start and see what I find.

Dodgers/Padres: Remember when Cody Bellinger was a ruined player because he struck out a lot in spring training? LOL. The Dodgers jumped on Sean Manaea for seven runs in 4.1 innings and also worked three walks. It was about as impressive of an offensive performance as the Dodgers have had this season given how Manaea was throwing the ball coming into the game. Manaea had also faced the Diamondbacks and Reds in two of his three starts. We’re at the point where you really want to take that under consideration and not overvalue pitchers in upcoming starts.

Red Sox/Rays: Shane McClanahan had 21 (!!) swings and misses in 52 swings on Sunday. He also worked up to 86 pitches. It was another extremely impressive outing from a whiff standpoint and everything you see about him is totally real. McClanahan allowed both runs in the first inning and then shut it down to go seven strong. Kid’s a rock star.

White Sox/Twins: The Chicago bullpen blew the game, but Lucas Giolito racked up 17 swings and misses in his 4.1 innings and had nine strikeouts in his return. It was a huge start for Giolito and the White Sox. It was the first bad Liam Hendriks appearance since April 8, so nothing to be overly concerned about, but the bullpen will need to be strong with all of the other injuries the team is dealing with. There are a few guys with elevated walk rates that look a little iffy right now, too. I’ll be following closely.

Monday Resources

Weather: Weather won’t be a big factor on Monday. Four games will be played in domes and the weather forecasts in Philadelphia, St. Louis and Anaheim all seem fine. It could be a bit breezy in St. Louis, with winds blowing left to right across the field.

Injuries: Check out our Injury Report right here at VSiN. Also, my friend @MLBDream on Twitter put together a great MLB beat writer list to follow.

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