MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 7/29

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

July 29, 2022 12:20 PM
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The last weekend before the Trade Deadline gets underway today with a lot of really good pitching matchups and some exorbitant AL East favorite prices. We’re seeing both the Yankees and the Blue Jays as nearly $4 favorites with Gerrit Cole against the Royals and Alek Manoah against the Tigers. It’s fair to say that those games will not be on my card for today.

Speaking of my card, it’s been a rough few days and it looks like July will be the first month in the red. The ups and downs of the MLB season have been on full display and if this is your first time betting baseball on a daily basis, you’re getting a crash course in the roller coaster ride that it can be. I’ll be looking to get off the ride as football season gets underway, as September has historically been a bad baseball month for me for a variety of reasons, but we’ll see how things play out in August.

Yesterday’s Recap

Marlins/Reds: The Marlins battled to a 7-6 win, but the big story here was that Daniel Castano took a 102 mph rocket off of his head and left the game after just 23 pitches. All tests seem encouraging, so hopefully he’ll be back soon. The Reds bullpen blew this one in the ninth with a ghastly outing from Hunter Strickland, but Graham Ashcraft allowed 12 hard-hit balls in 6.2 innings, yet somehow only one run.

I’d expect Miami’s offense to tick back down now that they’ve left the friendly confines of Cincinnati and are heading back home.

Phillies/Pirates: Yeesh. The Phillies bullpen had a day to forget yesterday, as an 8-0 lead suddenly became an 8-7 game. Zack Wheeler allowed two of the runs and Corey Knebel pitched a really uncomfortable eighth innings, but Jeurys Familia gave up five runs and recorded just one out on 19 pitches. Pittsburgh’s valiant comeback attempt fell short, but it gave them something to build on today.

On the Philly side, every hitter in the lineup had at least one hard-hit ball and seven of nine players had at least two, as Zach Thompson’s Regression Monster was lurking with seven runs allowed on 11 hits in 5.2 innings.

Dodgers/Rockies: The Dodgers hit the over all by themselves with a 13-0 win over the Rockies on Thursday. They scored 10 runs off of Jose Urena and Tyler Anderson cruised with 94 stress-free pitches over seven innings. Los Angeles had 19 hard-hit balls in the game and made them count with 14 hits. Urena now has a 4.67 ERA after a couple of awful starts in a row.

Side note, Dustin May made his third rehab appearance last night and struck out six of 12 batters while allowing just two hits for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Cubs/Giants: I didn’t really like much on the card last night, but felt like the Cubs had a decent chance as a + 120ish underdog against the slumping Giants, but they left their bats in Chicago and managed just two hits over 6.2 innings against Alex Wood. All four runs that Justin Steele allowed were unearned and he only allowed two hard-hit balls, as the Giants only had five hard-hit balls for the entire game.

Patrick Wisdom missed a pop up that left Mike Yastrzemski at second. After an infield single, a strikeout and a hit by pitch, the Giants had a 71.8 mph well-placed lob wedge to center that scored two and a 91.9 mph infield single to score another. After being burned by the Giants defense multiple times this season, it seems fitting to get burned by somebody else’s defense when betting against the Giants.

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