MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 7/1

By Adam Burke  ( 

July 1, 2022 12:04 PM

The fourth month of the MLB season is upon us and teams are reaching the midpoint of the season over the next few days. As we approach that point, I want to take a minute to thank all of the readers, especially those that have sent feedback. I hope I’ve given you some different things to think about when it comes to handicapping and analyzing baseball.

Whether you read the article to follow the picks, fade the picks, for the information or just to try and educate yourself on different ways and means of interpreting the game and all of its stats, it means the world to me to have my work read and appreciated. I’m certainly happy with how things have gone to this point and hope that they continue, but my goal creating content in this business for a decade has been to help with the why and how to bet instead of just what to bet. I’m not here to stroke my own ego or take victory laps. I’m here to be a resource and share whatever I can to help.

I know these daily articles can be a heavy lift sometimes with a lot of content and a lot of thoughts, so I sincerely appreciate anybody and everybody that reads every day, most days, once a week or is reading for the first time. Have a happy and safe holiday weekend, friends.

Yesterday’s Recap

Braves/Phillies: The Phillies had some fun yesterday with a 14-run outburst against Ian Anderson and the Braves. Darick Hall hit a couple of homers and Kyle Schwarber’s torrid June came to a fitting end. Pitching with a big lead, Aaron Nola did give up four runs and two homers, but still punched out eight and had 16 whiffs. I’ve mentioned how the market doesn’t like Anderson and starts like yesterday’s won’t help his cause.

Brewers/Pirates: David Bednar is dealing with a barking back and some in the Pirates community on Twitter have been unhappy with Derek Shelton’s usage of one of their best trade chips. I’ve mentioned how Shelton has been using Bednar for multiple innings. It seems like it may have taken its toll, as he gave up three runs on four hits yesterday for his first appearance June 25. If Bednar isn’t right, Pirates full game is a really tough bet to make.

Reds/Cubs: June was a solid month, but it ended in ugly fashion with Reds/Cubs 1st 5 under. There were 22 runs scored in the game and eight in the 1st 5. Kyle Hendricks was really solid, but Graham Ashcraft was not. Hendricks struck out seven over six quality innings, as he continued to be a tough pitcher to pin down. Ashcraft only gave up three hard-hit balls, but one was a grand slam, so that hurt a little bit. A start like that may create some future betting value on him, as I still think he’s really talented.

Padres/Dodgers: Joe Musgrove bounced back nicely with 10 strikeouts over seven innings, but the Padres mustered just one run in Manny Machado’s return. San Diego only hit four balls hard and the Dodgers had seven hard-hit balls against Musgrove. A good pitcher’s duel seems like a good tone-setter for the series.

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