MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 6/3

By Adam Burke  ( 

June 3, 2022 12:22 PM

One day game and 14 night games are on the MLB menu for Friday as we head into the weekend. There are a lot of frontline starters on the mound tonight, a throwback to the college days when Friday and Saturday starters were the best that teams had to offer. Speaking of college, while I don’t cap it, I love watching the College World Series and that’s going on right now. There’s a ton of talent out there and the games are chock full of emotion. If you get a chance to catch a few games, it will be worth your while.

Yesterday’s Recap

Nationals/Reds: I know that the Nationals are in a position to let Joan Adon learn on the job, but it’s almost unfair to the kid at this point. The Nationals managed just one run once again and Adon gave up three runs on six hits over 5.1 innings with four walks and four strikeouts to the lowly Reds.

One thing to keep in mind with the Reds is that Nick Senzel is back and Joey Votto is swinging a really hot bat. Since his return on 5/20 from the COVID list, Votto is slashing .289/.426/.711 with a .475 wOBA and a 202 wRC + in 47 plate appearances. He’s hit three homers, has a 58.6% Hard Hit% and five barreled balls. This offense still isn’t great, but with Votto raking, it looks a lot different.

Giants/Marlins: I nearly fired on the Marlins yesterday at what looked like an uncomfortably high price, but Sandy Alcantara is a different beast at home and Alex Wood has really struggled this season for the Giants. As it turns out, Miami won 3-0, validating that -135 to -140 line. Alcantara threw seven shutout innings in the victory and the game served as another reminder about how you have to view Miami differently at home.

The Marlins pen has a 59.4% LOB% over the last two weeks with a 5.86 ERA, but a 3.26 FIP. The Giants pen has a 6.95 ERA over the last two weeks with a 4.64 FIP and a 54.6% LOB%. Maybe the pitcher-friendly conditions at Marlins Park will help these two teams this weekend and help Miami during the homestand.

Cardinals/Cubs: Matthew Liberatore gave up 11 hard-hit balls in just 3.1 innings yesterday, as he fought with both his control and command. His velocity was down a bit as he labored through some tough innings. He’s walked eight in 13 innings so far and has been a really extreme fly ball pitcher. I’ll be curious to see what his price is next Wednesday in his next scheduled start against Corey Kluber and the Rays. I could see myself on Tampa in that one.

Braves/Rockies: Some places touched 12.5 on the total that we had at 11.5 and -120 in the morning hours for this one at Coors. The Braves got over the total by themselves. This offense has been able to get some confidence rolling against low-strikeout pitchers recently and they touched up Austin Gomber for nine runs on 15 hits in just five innings. The recipe needed to bet on the Braves is pretty clear.

Ian Anderson had nine strikeouts, but also surrendered 11 hard-hit balls and gave up five runs on 10 hits himself. In all, there were 29 hard-hit balls and five barrels in this game. Anderson probably would have been pulled earlier, if not for the big lead. Managers try to get their starters through five innings to get a win. That can be a good live betting situation if you’re following along.

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