MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 6/24

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 24, 2022 12:54 PM
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We’ve got my kind of card on Friday. Fifteen games and all of them are at night. These are the days I really like because I don’t feel rushed or pressured to get the article out and can take the time to do the deep-dive digging that makes me feel most comfortable with picks.

I’ve got a Saturday commitment, so I’ll do my best to get the article out, but there may not be an article on Saturday or Sunday this weekend. I’ll see how much of it I can write tonight to try and get something out, even if it’s a shorter version. No promises, but I’m a man of the people, so I’ll do what I can. I will be on Sunday’s edition of The Run Line with my dude Ben Wilson from 8-10 p.m. ET.

Yesterday’s Recap

Rockies/Marlins: The Road Rockies managed just two runs in the series finale, as we saw a couple of high-scoring series have prototypical getaway day games. Miami won 3-2 in this one with an eighth-inning run off of Alex Colome. The Marlins made a lot of hard contact off of Kyle Freeland, but had little to show for it. If you take anything away from this series, keep those L/R splits in mind for both of these teams. The Rockies had nine hits off Braxton Garrett, but only scored two runs in 4.2 innings.

Colorado hits lefties well and can’t really hit righties, especially on the road. Miami hits righties well and can’t really hit lefties.

Giants/Braves: The teams combined for 24 hits and 13 runs in what was NOT a traditional getaway day outcome. Alex Wood lasted one inning and gave up six runs on four hits, while Kyle Wright gave up four runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings. The Giants bullpen is really gassed right now and Monday’s off day can’t come soon enough. At least the Reds are in town now, but Alex Cobb hasn’t worked too deep into games and Anthony DeSclafani is set to make his second start on Sunday prior to Monday’s off day.

Dodgers/Reds: The Dodgers scored 26 runs at Great American Ball Park in a three-game sweep to start off this road trip. Tonight is Freddie Freeman Night in Atlanta, so it will be an emotional day for him. This is a step up in class for both teams, so I’ll be very interested to see how this Dodgers/Braves series goes with some solid pitching matchups.

Cubs/Pirates: Some of the positive regression I wrote about with the Cubs and runners in scoring position took hold over the last two days. They were 5-for-18 with RISP last night and 4-for-9 on Wednesday night. This is an offense that should be scoring more, but, as we’ve seen consistently, this pitching staff is quite bad.

The Cubs have allowed 154 runs in 21 games this month. They’ve lost games by 9, 3, 2, 6, 1, 8, 14, 3, 7, 14, 2, 6, 11, 6 and 1 in June. Since the script flipped on offense, it sure feels like we’ve seen a lot more run line cashes and even games that would cash on the alternate run lines. Teams like the Cubs and A’s are helping those records out a lot.

Cardinals/Brewers: The Redbirds and the Beermakers split this four-game set and remain tied for first place. The games were all pretty competitive and interesting, bookended by Josh Hader saves. It feels like the Brewers are really just trying to hang on right now with their starting pitching injuries and the concerns I mentioned about Eric Lauer.

On the Cardinals side, a trend seems to be emerging. Outside of Giovanny Gallegos, Genesis Cabrera and Ryan Helsley, there aren’t many strong relief arms. If those guys are not going to be used because the team is trailing, you can live bet against the Cardinals. Guys like Drew VerHagen and Nick Wittgren aren’t any good. They’ll lock down wins, but I don’t see too many comebacks because their lesser relievers keep allowing insurance runs.

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