MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 6/17

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 17, 2022 12:17 PM
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We’ve got a busy Friday slate to think about today with 16 games on the betting board. The Phillies and Nationals play two and everybody else will play one regularly scheduled game. As I’ve mentioned before, we’ve seen a lot of doubleheaders lately as teams try to squeeze in the games pushed back from the late start to the season or fit in postponed games from bad weather. Those can be tough on a pitching staff, so keep a watchful eye on the workloads.

At risk of jinxing myself, the article picks are 9-2 over the last six days to get back on track. Never get too high or too low in this business. It can be really humbling some days and you’re going to have plenty of ups and downs. Trust your process, make adjustments and try to carry a more positive outlook. The mental side of handicapping is something you never really master, but a big part of the equation on a daily basis. Take time to enjoy the wins and lament the losses. View each day as a new opportunity and you’ll be able to come out of the tough times.

Yesterday’s Recap

Padres/Cubs: The Cubs welcome the Braves to town having lost 10 in a row. That seems bad because the Braves have won 14 in a row. The Padres are your new NL West leader at 41-24 and just scored 41 runs over the four games at Wrigley Field. There were some optimal hitting conditions on the North Side, but the Cubs only managed 15 runs over the four games. There were some position players in there, but the Cubs bullpen allowed 30 runs in this series for a robust 16.53 ERA. Winning and losing streaks have a lot to do with bullpens, especially in this case.

Phillies/Nationals: No-sweat winners are the best, aren’t they? Seven runs in the third from the Phillies against Patrick Corbin allowed us to cruise to a run line winner yesterday. Only two of the nine runs Corbin allowed were earned, but he still didn’t pitch well again.

However, that’s burying the lede a little here. Zack Wheeler’s velo was down across the map and he only had four whiffs in 40 swings with decreased spin rates on everything but the changeup. Maybe he scaled it back a bit with the big lead, but he only touched 96 twice after the first inning. I’ll keep an eye on this for his next start.

Brewers/Mets: The Mets won 5-4 on Thursday, but it wasn’t a good day for either team. Tylor Megill left after 3.1 innings with shoulder discomfort and Aaron Ashby left after 4.1 frames with forearm discomfort. For two rotations already missing key pieces, this is a bit of a scary development. Both guys said they were fine after the game, but MRIs will tell the real story.

With the loss, the Brewers dropped their 12th game in the last 15. The Mets are 7-6 during their tough stretch with the Dodgers, Padres, Angels and Brewers. Now they’ll alternate between the Marlins and Astros for the next 11 games before the schedule drops off again through the All-Star Break.

Athletics/Red Sox: Give the A’s a ton of credit. They’re a terrible team, but they were staring down the barrel of an 0-for road trip and came away with a gritty 4-3 win over the Red Sox to head home with some positive vibes for the cross-country flight to OAK. It wasn’t easy thanks to two unearned runs, but the bullpen held and our under also held, mostly because the Red Sox were 1-for-14 with RISP.

The Red Sox play the Cardinals, Tigers, Guardians, Blue Jays and Cubs before finishing the first half with 14 games against the Rays and Yankees. I think it’s always important to look ahead to see the upcoming schedule because we can paint a mental picture of how a team is likely to perform so that we don’t overreact to recent performances and line adjustments.

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