MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 6/10

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 10, 2022 12:30 PM
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The worst part about betting is losing. The second-worst part is putting your hard-earned money and trust into players to perform and managers to make the right decisions while having no control or input. I’m looking at you, Brandon Hyde.

A phenomenon exists in baseball called the “Third Time Through the Order Penalty”. It is an almost universal phenomenon that starting pitchers are worse facing a hitter for the third time than they are the first or second time. I’ve written about it and surely you’ve heard about it as a baseball fan and bettor. For some pitchers, the 3TTO, as I call it, is a whole lot worse.

One such pitcher is Jordan Lyles. The Orioles trailed 4-1 in the fifth yesterday before scoring three runs to make it a tie game. With a massive bullpen advantage, and only ONE GAME PLAYED OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS, Hyde opted to bring Lyles back out for the fifth after his offense just bailed out the pitcher. The first hitter walked, the second hitter hit a mammoth two-run homer and the Orioles immediately trailed 6-4.

Lyles has been notoriously bad the third time through the order in his career. How bad? Using weighted on-base average (wOBA), every hitter collectively turns into Aaron Judge. Opposing batters a .397 wOBA for his career (Judge has a career .398 wOBA) and they own a .366 wOBA this season (George Springer and Kyle Tucker have .365 wOBAs this season). He has a career ERA of 8.80 the third time through over 1,145 batters faced.

With mountains of easily-accessible data (and a rested bullpen), Hyde sent him back out there and the most obvious outcome in the world happened.

Oh, yeah, and Tony La Russa literally intentionally walked a guy in a 1-2 count yesterday. The next guy hit a three-run homer.

There are 30 manager jobs available in a billion-dollar industry and this is apparently the best that teams can do.

This would’ve been a talking point no matter what, but it is exacerbated by the fact that I was + 15.6 units from Opening Day through May 13 and am currently -11.65 units from May 14 to the present. Baseball flipped the switch to bring back offense on or around May 14, rendering previous sample sizes useless and turning games into more of a high-variance crapshoot. I’ve psyched myself out to a degree, but also run bad and my handicapping style was counterfeited by yet another midseason change.

Hopefully it turns soon. You know, like today.

Yesterday’s Recap

Diamondbacks/Reds: Positive regression finding Tyler Mahle. He fired six outstanding innings with 10 strikeouts yesterday before the bullpen dropped a deuce on all of his hard work. He still has a 5.07 ERA, but he has a 3.87 xERA and a 3.69 FIP. His 63.6% LOB% shouldn’t continue with a high strikeout rate. The game is tailored more towards offense now than it was, but those LOB% outliers should still regress towards the mean.

Phillies/Brewers: Corbin Burnes needed 113 pitches to get 13 outs yesterday and the Brewers struggled on offense once again, but it was the bullpen that stood out in a negative way. The Phillies scored five runs over the final three innings for an 8-3 win. They’re undefeated since Joe Girardi was canned and have been a different team since Bryce Harper got back in the lineup. One thing I need to get better at is riding waves and the Phillies are on one right now.

Nationals/Marlins: The Marlins are 3-0 since they aired their grievances about teammate Jazz Chisholm Jr., who certainly plays the game with a lot of flare and swagger. Maybe the heart-to-heart helped everybody come together. Or maybe it was facing the corpse of what Stephen Strasburg used to be. Either way, a team that should be .500 or better based on run differential is having a nice week after putting its best player on blast in the clubhouse. We’ll see if it continues.

Pirates/Braves: JT Brubaker had 16 whiffs over seven quality innings against the Braves yesterday, who won thanks to six quality innings from Max Fried and a lot of ineptitude with men on base from the Pirates. Fried actually allowed eight hits, but the only run came on a solo homer. The last five losses for the Pirates have been by two runs and three of the four prior to that were by one run. In games where they’re a big dog, run lines or + 2.5 run lines aren’t bad bets.

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