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MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 5/6

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 6, 2022 12:19 PM
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We’re already down three game on the diamond for Friday and one was the only day game on the docket. Guess you’ll have to look somewhere else for that distraction from work while you think about leaving early for the weekend. Dodgers/Cubs has been banged, as well as Rangers/Yankees and Mets/Phillies.

We had a weird situation yesterday with a line posted at several books for Cardinals/Giants and some uncertainty about the pitching matchup. ESPN had Logan Webb listed for the Giants, as it was his turn in the rotation. San Francisco opted to scratch him and give him an extra day of rest. It may have been to their detriment in a 7-1 loss. Going forward, I will avoid those games with the pitcher uncertainty. Like I talked about earlier in the week, you never want to select “Action” when making your bets. You always want to select the option for the listed pitchers. Because Webb wasn’t listed everywhere, that got a bit dicey yesterday and I apologize. I’ll do my best to avoid those issues moving forward.

Yesterday’s Recap

Reds/Brewers: As if the complete lack of offense wasn’t enough for the Reds, it seems like every pitcher is getting tagged now. Yesterday, it was Hunter Greene. Oddsmakers are in a bad place with this team, as they can’t seem to set the line high enough. Adjustments will have to continue to be made. If you’ve been willing to lay the chalk or take the run line, you’ve done quite well. At this point, it will probably continue.

Nationals/Rockies: The Nationals look like a pretty strong over team, even in the depressed run environment. I’ve been impressed with their offense and that isn’t just the Coors Field Effect speaking. As I’ve written about, they’ve had a lot more opportunities with RISP than I anticipated. The pitching staff is just atrocious. Maybe not Josiah Gray, but the rest of it is really bad. I’ll still keep looking for over spots. Wish I had played yesterday’s and saw my thought process through like I did with fading Minnesota.

Mets/Phillies: What a collapse of epic proportions from the Phillies bullpen. The Mets trailed 7-1 in the ninth and won 8-7. The Phillies, who are only 8-4 in games when they score five or more runs, have some major defensive and bullpen issues yet again to iron out. At least Aaron Nola was dominant in his outing.

Marlins/Padres: Influential bettors have lost a lot of money this week backing the Marlins, as Miami struggled at home with the Diamondbacks and then went down after getting bet into a favorite against the Padres. Jesus Luzardo pitched well, but his offense couldn’t get to Nick Martinez, who threw seven innings of one-run ball. He has a 3.38 ERA, but a 5.36 xERA and a 5.46 FIP. He’s a primary regression candidate and I’d expect money to be bet against him in next start as well.

Cardinals/Giants: Regression is very much coming for Miles Mikolas, too. He allowed 10 baserunners in 5.2 innings with seven hits and three walks, but only allowed one run. He has a 1.53 ERA with a 2.74 xERA and a 3.01 FIP, so he’s pitched well, but his 90.6% LOB% is ripe for regression. We just have to pick the right spots, since Busch Stadium is such a pitcher-friendly park.

Angels/Red Sox: It was a rough day for Tanner Houck, who gave up seven runs in just 2.1 innings after Rich Hill pitched five shutout frames with six strikeouts. He gave up four singles and a home run and two inherited runners scored. It’s an ERA killer, but I still like him long-term.

The big story was obviously Shohei Ohtani’s dominance, as he threw 81 of 99 pitches for strikes and had 29 swings and misses with his 11 strikeouts. I hope we don’t take a day of watching him for granted because we may never see anything like this again.

Blue Jays/Guardians: We finally got the Jose Berrios bad start I’ve been waiting for, as he allowed six runs on eight hits to the Guardians. Aaron Civale also struggled through 5.2 innings, but did have eight strikeouts, so at least that was promising. Berrios only had four whiffs with decreased velocity and spin rates, so those are a couple of concerning signs. Civale actually had 16 whiffs with a mild uptick in velo and spin, so it doesn’t appear like Berrios’s issues were a result of the tracking system. It was an interesting game to say the least.

Twins/Orioles: The Orioles cashed at a + 135 price for us yesterday and this speaks to a bigger thing we can look to take advantage of as the season goes along. I felt like the two starters had a chance to cancel out and they virtually did. If that was the case, I was getting what I believe to be the better bullpen at + 135. It won’t always work out, but we got 4.1 shutout innings from Baltimore and it led to a win at a nice number.

Try to evaluate full-game lines like that. If you can snag a bullpen advantage at plus money when the starters have the chance to leave the game tied or close to it, that can be a really good opportunity. It’s one of the many reasons why I think bullpen handicapping is essential.

Tigers/Astros: Much to my chagrin, the Tigers just keep playing poorly. They made it interesting last night, but fell 3-2 to the Astros. Tarik Skubal looked great, though, with nine strikeouts and just a couple of solo homers allowed. Ryan Pressly came off the IL for the Astros and nearly blew the save with two runs in the ninth. It was his first appearance since April 13 and it was not promising. Houston still has some bugs in the system, despite this recent run.

Rays/Mariners: Robbie Ray gave up four runs in 6.2 innings, but it wasn’t as bad of a start as it seemed. The Rays scored all four runs in the fourth inning and did so on a bunt single, an 83 mph single, a 70 mph single and a home run with an expected batting average of .290. Ray only walked one guy and only gave up six hard-hit balls. I actually think it was a pretty decent start for him and maybe one that creates some value going forward.

Also, Paul Sewald struck out the side in the ninth. I’ve noticed that Scott Servais will throw his best relievers out there in hopes of keeping a game at a one-run deficit. Very few managers will do this. It may come in handy to know that one day.

Friday Resources

Weather: Three games have already been rained out. Royals/Orioles and Pirates/Reds are also threatened by Mother Nature. Blue Jays/Guardians also looks suboptimal, especially with a cool day and winds blowing in. When Manny Acta was the Indians manager, he referred to this kind of day as “Dracula weather”. It certainly seems to fit.

The wind is blowing out at a good clip in Atlanta and could help the ball on a cool night in San Francisco.

Injuries: Check out our Injury Report right here at VSiN. Also, my friend @MLBDream on Twitter put together a great MLB beat writer list to follow.

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