Measured response best for hockey bettors

By Andy MacNeil  () 

Has Jonathan Quick's Demise Been Overstated?

After six games, Quick had posted an .835 save percentage and had cost the Kings more than six goals, according to Evolving Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). However, in the three games Quick has played since, the veteran goaltender has saved the team almost five goals above expected while posting two shutouts. Quick was elite for the better part of 185 minutes. Whether you were on the right side or the wrong side of those performances, a measured response is best. We would not expect Quick to churn out performances like that, considering he has done so only a couple of times over the last two seasons. 

Framing game-level performances with a range of uncertainty can put things into perspective. Think of it like a deck of cards. An ace has been pulled from Quick’s pack twice. Before his next start, the cards are reshuffled, and the ace is placed back in the deck. Quick could have another ace up his sleeve, but it’s much more likely that we see a lesser performance. In fact, given what we’ve seen out of Quick these last few seasons, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve already witnessed his best. Of course, if Quick continues to shut the door the way he has lately, it will be harder to deny that we’re seeing a resurgence of a once-talented goaltender. Until then, don’t expect Quick to turn back the clock.

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