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May NBA Overs Stay Hot and Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (5-11)

May 11, 2021 03:25 AM

NBA overs went 4-2 on Monday night, continuing their hot streak as we approach the end of the regular season. So far in the month of May, overs are 43-34 (56%). A $100 bettor taking each over this month would be up roughly $700. This is notable because overs went just 49.9% prior to the month of May. In essence, overs are cashing as a 6.1% higher clip this month than in previous months. The top May over betting system has been when the total rises at least a half point. In these situations, the over is 24-11 (69%).

Why are NBA overs crushing it this final month? It's likely a confluence of factors, including some teams tanking and playing zero defense while others have completely different motivations in terms of seeding or battling to make (or avoid) the play-in tournament. Tired legs could also be a factor, as the long grind is coming to an end and we had a quick turnaround from last year's bubble. Whatever the case may be, overs continue to be a winning bet in the final month. 

Now we turn to Tuesday, where bettors have a loaded betting menu to choose from, including 15 MLB games, 11 NBA games, and 2 NHL games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

7:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (21-15) at Boston Red Sox (22-14)

This non-division matchups feature two of the top three teams in the American League facing off. The Athletics lead the AL West and just took two of three at home against the Rays. The Red Sox lead the AL East and just took three of four on the road at Baltimore. In tonight's series opener, the Athletics trot out righty Chris Bassitt (2-2, 3.70 ERA) and the Red Sox start righty Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 4.62 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a moderate -135 home favorite and the Athletics a + 125 road dog. The public is all over the Red Sox at home, yet we've seen Boston fall from -135 to -127. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Oakland, with pros grabbing the plus money dog (+ 125 to + 117). Oakland has value as a dog with a high total (9), a sweet spot dog + 140 or less (5% ROI this season) and a road dog (9% ROI). Pros also seem to be eyeing the under here. The total is 9 with heavy under juice (-120). Oakland has a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Sunday while the Red Sox played Monday and now travel back home for a quick turnaround. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (16-17) at Detroit Tigers (10-24)

Both of these AL Central rivals have struggled mightily as of late and are desperate for a win. The Royals have lost eight straight games and the Tigers are just 3-13 over their last sixteen. In tonight's series opener, the Royals start righty Brady Singer (1-3, 3.41 ERA) and the Tigers counter with lefty Matthew Boyd (2-3, 2.27 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a short -120 road favorite and Detroit a + 110 home dog. Pros and Joes are both rushing to the window to back the Royals, as we've seen Kansas City get steamed up from -120 to -135. The Royals are 8-4 as a favorite this season. The Tigers are 9-21 as a dog. Kansas City is 8-5 on the road and Detroit is 5-10 at home. The Royals will lean on their bats in this one. Kansas City is hitting .234 on the season, which ranks 13th overall. Detroit is hitting .212, which ranks 28th. The total is 7.5 with -115 juice to the over. The forecast calls for low 50s with 10 MPH winds out to dead-center. The Royals are 4-0 against the Tigers so far this season.

7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (16-19) at New York Mets (16-13)

These Interleague foes are trending in opposite directions. The Orioles just dropped three of four at home against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Mets have won five straight against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals. In tonight's series opener, the Orioles hand the ball to lefty John Means (4-0, 1.37 ERA) and the Mets give the ball to veteran righty Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.12 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -135 home favorite and the Orioles a + 125. The public sees Means coming off a no-hitter and are rushing to the window to grab the plus money with Baltimore. However, respected money seems to be fading the trendy dog and backing the red-hot Mets and we've seen New York get bet up from -135 to -145. Interleague teams with line movement in their favor as 30-22 (58%) this season. Home teams with 10+  cents of steam in a non-division game are 46-32 (59%). We could also be in for a lower scoring game. The total is 7 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 6.5. Interleague Unders are 29-23 (56%) this season. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season. The Orioles are 23-12 to the under and the Mets 16-12. The forecast calls for high 50s with wind blowing in from left-center at 10-15 MPH.

 

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