Serious concerns about team sports outside a bubble “went viral” Tuesday as MLB issued a one-week quarantine for baseball’s Miami Marlins and many NFL players opted out of the coming season.
If MLB saw that much spread on one baseball roster over a few days, what could happen with a high-contact sport like football over four months outside of a bubble?
All of the following NFL players announced Tuesday that they weren’t going to risk playing (check running list here)
Brando Bolden (RB, New England), Patrick Chung (S, New England), Devin Funchess (WR, Green Bay), Eddie Goldman (DT, Chicago), Marquise Goodwin (WR, Philadelphia), Stephen Guidry (WR, Dallas), Dont’a Hightower (LB, New England), Leo Koloamatangi (OL, NY Jets), Star Lotulelei (DT, Buffalo), Jordan Mack (LB, Carolina), Anthony McKinney (OT, Tennessee), Kyle Peko, (DT, Denver), Michael Pierce (DT, Minnesota), Andre Smith (OT, Baltimore), Eddie Vanderdoes (DT, Houston), Jason Vander Laan (TE, New Orleans), Cole Wick (TE, New Orleans).
That’s just one day. Eight others had previously announced they were opting out. Players have until Aug. 3 to announce opt-out intentions.
Aug. 4 is the day the Miami Marlins can return to action. Major League Baseball announced that the team would sit out the rest of this week (midweek games vs. Baltimore, a weekend series vs. Washington). Monday was an off day. Miami is scheduled to host Philadelphia Tuesday, Aug. 4-Thursday, Aug. 6. That’s pending any additional schedule adjustments caused by Miami-Dade county being one of the nation’s worst covid hot spots.
U.S. HITS JULY HIGH WITH 1,245 COVID FATALITIES
News continues to get worse regarding the resurgence of confirmed fatalities caused by the coronavirus. Worldometers.com reported 1,245 deaths Tuesday
, the highest total so far in July (previous high 1,221 last Wednesday).
Records at that site show that a count that high hadn’t been recorded since May 27 (1,552). A long slow decline through June and much of July has reversed in recent days.
In terms of individual states, all the hot spots we’ve been reporting on through our July countdown continue to be in trouble. Texas topped 10K new confirmed cases for the first time in a dozen days. New problem areas are emerging. Missouri set an all-time one-day high Tuesday with 1,676 new confirmed cases. That was its eight straight day over 1K.
For those of you living in Nevada, 1,105 new cases were reported to worldometers Tuesday. That was the eighth day in the last 13 over 1K, the 12th day in the last 13 over 900, and the 19th straight day over 800.
BUBBLE SUCCESS STORY CONTINUES WITH MLS TOURNEY HEADING TO QUARTERS
Sports that have built containment bubbles continue to have success keeping players healthy. Major League Soccer, the first sport to restart, has reached the quarterfinals of “MLS is Back” tournament being held in Orlando and Kissimmee.
Tuesday night, Minnesota beat Columbus 5-3 on penalty kicks (after a 1-1 regulation tie) to advance and Portland beat Cincinnati 4-2 on PK’s (also after a 1-1 regulation tie).
Wednesday is an off-day. Here are the quarterfinals in bracket order so you can visualize possible future matchups. We’ve included our most recent estimated “market” Power Rating on a goal supremacy scale so you can assess likely betting lines.
Quarterfinals (in bracket order)
Kansas City (2.4) vs. Philadelphia (2.1) (Thursday, ESPN, 8 p.m.)
NYCFC (2.1) vs. Portland (1.9) (Saturday, FS1, 10:30 p.m.)
LAFC (2.7) vs. Orlando (2.2) (Friday, FS1, 7:30 p.m.)
Minnesota (2.1) vs. San Jose (2.0) (Saturday, ESPN, 8 p.m.)
Winners of the first two games will play each other in the first semifinal next Tuesday. Winners of the bottom two games will meet in the second semifinal next Wednesday. Pre-tournament favorite LAFC is still considered the class of the field.
Early betting for Thursday and Friday matchups is already underway. Here are odds with “odds to advance” coming from a global composite.
Thursday: Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
Odds to Advance
: Kansas City -160, Philadelphia -140
: Kansas City plus 111, Philadelphia plus 208, draw plus 273
: Kansas City -0.25 goals (-118), Philadelphia plus 0.25 goals (-108)
: 3 goals (Over -110, Under -116)
Friday: LAFC vs. Orlando
Odds to Advance
: LAFC -200, Orlando plus 170
: LAFC -114, Orlando plus 234, draw plus 320
: LAFC -0.5 goals (-114), Orlando plus 0.5 goals (-115)
: 3.5 goals (Over -112, Under -112)
Soccer is winding down just as the NBA and NHL are getting ready to roll.
NBA GEARING UP FOR THURSDAY TIP-OFF, LAKERS STILL CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITES
We’ll look at game matchups Thursday and Friday as we finish out our July countdown series. Let’s spend a moment today getting caught up on futures prices to win the NBA championship.
Favorites: Lakers plus 180, Bucks plus 275, Clippers plus 325.
A $100 bet on the Lakers would win you $180 in profit (the sports book returns your initial $100 wager, then pays you $180 for picking the right team). The Clippers will be missing some players right at the restart, but hope to be at full strength for the playoffs.
Threats: Rockets 12/1, Celtics 15/1, Raptors 17/1, Nuggets 18/1, Sixers 25/1.
If you believe that “anything can happen” in unique neutral-court circumstances, all of these “threats” offer nice returns. Just remember that using them in a “rolling parlay” through the playoffs would likely yield a better return given the upsets they’d have to pull off.
Dark Horses: Mavericks 35/1, Heat 40/1, Pelicans 50/1, Jazz 60/1, Thunder 60/1, Portland 75/1.
Could any of these play spoiler vs. a league power? We’ll know in a few weeks.
Longshots: Pacers 125/1, Nets 150/1, Magic 500/1, Suns 500/1, Grizzlies 500/1, Spurs 1000/1, Wizards 1000/1, Kings 2000/1.
Brutal pathways for all given their talent disadvantages compared to the rest of the bubble.
USE ANDY MACNEIL’S “NO-VIG” SERIES ASSESSMENTS TO GUIDE YOUR NHL QUALIFYING ROUND DECISIONS
We hope you’ve already requested your free Hockey betting guide from VSiN.
Inside, Andy MacNeil provided his “no-vig” assessments for series prices in the qualifying rounds.
Pittsburgh -192 vs. Montreal (66% to 34% to advance)
Florida -106 vs. NY Islanders (51.5% to 48.5% to advance)
Carolina -127 vs. NY Rangers (56% to 44% to advance)
Toronto -178 vs. Columbus (64% to 36% to advance)
Edmonton -128 vs. Chicago (56% to 44% to advance)
Nashville -124 vs. Arizona (55% to 45% to advance)
Calgary -104 vs. Winnipeg (51% to 49% to advance)
Vancouver -117 vs. Minnesota (54% to 46% to advance)
First four are from the Eastern Conference, the rest from the West. Those best-of-five series begin Saturday and Sunday.
Those money lines represent prices without any vigorish. Andy’s methodology suggests that “true odds” would price Pittsburgh as a -192 favorite, Montreal a plus 192 underdog. Those new to betting should consider estimating true odds in this fashion for all money line betting options. (It will dissuade you from betting so many overpriced favorites!)
Other Stories of Interest
*Research shows people over 6-feet are more likely to contract covid (NY Post)
*Harvard researchers discover why covid causes loss of smell (NY Post)
*CES trade show scheduled for in Las Vegas early 2021 already canceled (Variety)
*Las Vegas recovery could take 18-36 months (Las Vegas Review-Journal)
VSiN Clips/Tweets on Betting Restarts
*Full segment from Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard on baseball betting chaos (Follow the Money)
*NBA broadcaster Ian Eagle chats with Mitch and Pauly about life in the bubble (Follow the Money)
*MLB reporter Jesse Rogers talks to Mitch and Pauly about the Cubs bullpen (Follow the Money)
*Warren Sharp and Gill Alexander discuss NFL betting (A Numbers Game)
*Dan Besbris and Gill Alexander talk about betting value on the Sacramento Kings (A Numbers Game)
*JVT evaluates Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans (The Edge)
*Mike Palm and JVT break down the Blackhawks/Oilers NHL series (The Edge)
Back again Thursday morning.