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Market Insights: Winners & losers at NHL halfway point

January 9, 2020 11:54 PM

The NHL All-Star game doesn't take place until Jan. 25 in St. Louis. But in terms of the actual schedule, many teams just eclipsed the halfway point of the regular season (game 41 of 82). Let's take a look at how the first half turned out for bettors and also home in on some profitable systems for the second half (data via Bet Labs Sports). 

Favorites 385-296 (56.5%)

Dogs 296-385 (43.5%)

Despite moneyline favorites winning at a 56.5% clip, bettors would be down -31.76 units due to laying the minus favorite price. Dogs have won 43.5% of games but due to the plus-money payouts have produced 5.05 units.

Home teams 363-313 (53.7%)

Road teams 313-363 (46.3%)

Similarly, home teams have a winning record, but have lost -30.92 units due to mostly favorite prices. In turn, road teams (typically dog prices) are 5.04 units. 

Conference dogs 173-241 (41.8%)

Non-conference dogs 123-144 (46.1%)

We see a big discrepancy in the performance of dogs depending on whether it's a conference game or non-conference. Non-conference dogs have performed much better ( 15.97 units) compared to conference dogs (-10.92 units).

Overs 334-326 (50.6%)

Unders 326-334 (49.4%)

Both overs and unders have been a losing bet through the first half of play, but overs (-9.65 units) have been slightly better than unders (-28.98 units).

Profitable Systems

  • Two good teams (.500 or more) take the dog: 87-87 (50%), plus 24.03 units
  • Two bad teams (.499 or less) take the favorite: 73-42 (63.5%), plus 6.47 units
  • Non-conference Road dogs: 91-102 (47.2%), plus 20.97 units
  • Short road dogs ( 130 or less) coming off a win: 24-19 (56%), plus 9.25 units
  • Dogs with line movement in their favor (think 120 to 115): 119-132 (47.4%), plus 10.74 units
  • Rested team (2-4 days off) off a loss vs tired team on 2nd night of a back-to-back: 39-27 (59%), plus 5.11 units
  • A team on 3 days of rest vs a team on 2nd night of a back-to-back: 26-14 (65%), plus 4.79 units
  • Well-rested road favorites (3-4 days off vs team who missed playoffs previous year): 26-15 (63%), plus 4.74 units

Most profitable teams to bet one

  • Islanders 27-15, plus 10.93 units
  • Capitals 30-15, plus 9.1 units
  • Rangers 21-22, plus 6.51 units
  • Blues 27-17, plus 6.2 units
  • Jets 23-21 plus 5.9 units
  • Avalanche 25-19, plus 5.5 units
  • Oilers 24-22, plus 4.81 units

Least profitable teams to bet on

  • Red Wings 11-33, -14.6 units
  • Devils 15-28, -8.83 units
  • Canadiens 18-27, -8.3 units
  • Ducks 17-26, -7.92 units
  • Predators 19-23, -7.39 units
  • Kings 17-28, -7.12 units
  • Sharks 19-25, -6.85 units

Stanley Cup Odds via Circa Sports

  • Bruins plus 750
  • Lightning plus 1000
  • Maple Leafs plus 1100
  • Capitals plus 1200
  • Blues plus 1200
  • Avalanche plus 1200
  • Penguins plus 1400
  • Stars plus 1400
  • Golden Knights plus 1400
  • Islanders plus 1600
  • Coyotes plus 1600
  • Hurricanes plus 2200

For an updated breakdown of the sharpest NHL plays, plus smart money across all major sports, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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