Market Insights: What we've learned from NBA first half

We've reached the unofficial halfway point of the 2019-2020 NBA season with most teams sitting at roughly 41 games played out of the 82-game regular season schedule. The All-Star Break is still a month away (Feb. 14-16 in Chicago), but now is a good time to reflect on first-half trends, including what systems, teams and situations in particular have been beneficial for NBA bettors.

Before diving into first-half betting results, let's discuss a quick update on a pair of meaningful line moves for NFL conference championship Sunday. 

Titans at Chiefs: This line opened with Kansas City listed as 7.5-point home favorites. The public is all over the Chiefs with two-thirds of bets laying the points. All week, this line has remained frozen at 7.5. The fact that oddsmakers refused to raise it to 8 despite the lopsided Chiefs betting signaled sharp liability on the road dog Titans. Yesterday we saw sharps make their move on Tennessee, hitting the Titans plus the hook (+ 7.5), moving the line down to 7. We now have a true sharp reverse line move on Tennessee plus the points. 

Playoff dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their direction (think + 7.5 to + 7) are 3-1 ATS this postseason and 59-42 ATS (58%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%), including 6-2 ATS in conference title games. Jimmy Vaccaro took a $44,000 bet on the Titans + 7.5 at the South Point yesterday. 

Packers at 49ers: The NFC Championship game line opened San Francisco -7, quickly moved to -7.5 and hasn't budged since. However, the over has taken in sharp money over the last 24 hours, rising from 45 to 46.5. AFC and NFC Championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003. The weather looks perfect for Sunday with temperatures in the high 50s, overcast with little-to-no wind. 

Friday's action features 7 NBA games, 3 NHL games and 9 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of sharp action across the marketplace be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Now back to the NBA...

First-half betting trends

Dogs 302-298 ATS (50.3%)

Favorites 298-302 ATS (49.7%)

Home teams 295-304 ATS (49.2%)

Road teams 304-295 ATS (50.8%)

Big dogs + 10 or more: 58-42 ATS (58%)

Favorites off 10-point loss of more: 61-45 ATS (57.5%)

Overs 310-302 (50.7%)

Unders 302-310 (49.3%)

Divisional Unders 67-52 (56.3%)

Non-Divisional Unders 235-258 (47.7%)

Over when total is 210 or less: 43-35 (55.1%)

Under when total is 230 or more: 45-36 (55.6%)

Over when total rises 2-points or more: 84-67 (55.6%)

Best ATS Teams

Thunder 27-14 (65.9%)

Heat 23-15 (60.5%)

Celtics 23-15 (60.5%)

Pacers 23-17 (57.5%)

Bucks 24-19 (55.8%)

Raptors 22-18 (55%)

Worst ATS Teams

Pistons 15-26 (36.6%)

Spurs 15-23 (39.5%)

Blazers 16-24 (40%)

Timberwolves 16-22 (42.1%)

Cavaliers 17-23 (42.5%)

Hawks 18-23 (43.9%)

Best Over Teams

Heat 24-15 (61.5%)

Spurs 24-15 (61.5%)

Mavericks 25-16 (61%)

Pistons 25-17 (59.5%)

Pelicans 24-18 (57.1%)

Wizards 22-17 (56.4%)

Best Under Teams

Warriors 25-17 (59.5%)

Rockets 23-17 (57.5%)

Nuggets 23-17 (57.5%)

Celtics 22-18 (55%)

Magic 22-18 (55%)

Knicks 23-19 (54.8%)

NBA Title Odds at Circa Sports

Clippers + 240

Lakers + 260

Bucks + 400

Rockets + 950

76ers + 1200

Celtics + 2000

Nuggets + 2400

Jazz + 3000

Mavericks, Heat + 5000

Raptors + 6000

Pacers + 7500

NBA MVP Odds

Giannis Antetokounmpo -190

James Harden + 325

LeBron James + 465

Luka Doncic + 580

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Ja Morant -750

Kendrick Nunn + 875

Tyler Herro + 1250

Zion Williamson + 2100

RJ Barrett + 3000

Eric Paschall + 3000

 

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