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Market Insights: What early line movement tells us about Super Bowl 54

January 20, 2020 01:04 AM

Championship Sunday did not disappoint. 

In the early game, Tennessee raced out to an early 17-7 lead but just like in the Divisional Round, Kansas City roared back to win and cover 35-24. The Chiefs opened at -7.5. Two-thirds of bets laid the points with Kansas City but sharp money came in on the Titans, causing the line to close at 7. The public also beat sportsbooks (and late sharp action) by cashing the over. It opened at 51, rose to 53, fell to 51 on game-day and landed on 59. 

In the nightcap, San Francisco dominated from start to finish. The 49ers led 27-0 at the half. The Packers fought back in the second half but it was all for naught as the 49ers won and covered 37-20. San Francisco opened at -7 and moved to -7.5 throughout the week. Spread bets were relatively split but game-day sharp action pushed San Francisco to -8. Game-day moves are always the most meaningful because that's when limits are highest and the big whale bettors get down. Sharps also cashed the over. It opened at 45, closed at 47 and landed on 57.

All in all, favorites and overs both went 2-0 on Sunday. AFC and NFC Championship game overs are now 20-11 (65%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports.

We now have our Super Bowl matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers.

Monday's action features 14 NBA games, 2 NHL games and 25 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of sharp action across the marketplace be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Let's discuss where early money is flowing for Super Bowl LIV. 

Sunday Feb. 2 at 6:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (15-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-4)

Super Bowl 54 should be a matchup for the ages with NFC 1 seed San Francisco taking on AFC 2-seed Kansas City. Both teams are a combined 29-7. The game takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, the home of the Dolphins. The 49ers are riding a four-game winning streak. Their last loss came in Week 15 against Atlanta 29-22 as 10-point favorites. San Francisco covered in both of their playoff games, beating Minnesota 27-10 in the Divisional Round as 7-point favorites and then taking down the Packers 37-20 in the NFC Title game as 8-point favorites. Overall, the 49ers are 11-6-1 ATS. San Francisco averages 30.17 PPG on offense and gives up 18.89 PPG on defense. The 49ers have won five Super Bowls in franchise history and are playing in the first Super Bowl since 2013 when they fell to the Ravens 34-31. 

The Chiefs have won eight straight games. Their last loss came in Week 10 against Tennessee 35-32. Kansas City covered in both of their playoff games as well, beating Houston 51-31 as 10-point favorites in the Divisional Round and then taking down Tennessee 35-24 as 7-point favorites in the AFC Title game. Kansas City has been a huge moneymaker for bettors this year, going 13-5 ATS. The Chiefs average 29.83 PPG on offense and allow 20.17 PPG on defense. Kansas City is making its first Super Bowl appearance since 1969 when they beat the Vikings 23-7.

Super Bowl 54 opened at a true pick'em. With this game being played on a neutral site, the oddsmakers are telling you these teams are dead even and the game is a coin-flip. Roughly two-thirds of early bets are backing the Chiefs, which has pushed this line up to Kansas City -1 or -1.5 depending on the book. As soon as the line opened, William Hill took in a $33,000 bet on the Chiefs at a pick'em. 

Pros and Joes have also gotten down hard on the over. The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 53.5 behind more than eight-out-of-ten bets hitting the over. Both teams have been profitable to the over this year, with San Francisco 9-8-1 and Kansas City 10-8. Bill Vinovich has been named the head ref. He has historically favored the under (58%). 

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