Market Insights: Value hunting for NFL draft props

March 31, 2020 12:16 AM

In yesterday's newsletter, we highlighted a trio of NFL win totals offering value across the market. Today, we turn our attention to the NFL Draft, which is still on schedule for April 23-25. There are hundreds of different prop bets, including first player selected, individual over/under for players and positions plus head-to-head matchup odds. Just like in regular sports betting, shopping for the best line is key as different books have different prices for the same props. Make sure you shop around and get the best number. 

Here are a few that have caught my eye thus far... 

Who will be selected with the #1 overall pick?

There's no such thing as a lock when betting on sports, except for who will be selected first overall. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow turned in one of the best seasons in college history (60 TDs, 6 INTs, 5,671 yards) and is a shoo-in to be picked first by the Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow is -3500 to go 1st at FanDuel, -10,000 at DraftKings and -3334 at PointsBet. 

Who will be selected 2nd overall?

Many consider Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young the top overall prospect in the draft. The 6-5, 265-pound junior racked up 16.5 sacks for the Buckeyes last season and is the favorite to be drafted 2nd overall by the Washington Redskins. Young is -380 to go second overall at FanDuel, -305 at DraftKings and -313 at PointsBet. 

Who will be selected 3rd overall?

Burrow and Young are the consensus top two picks. Now it gets interesting at three. Oddsmakers see a two-man race between Alabama star QB Tua Tagavailoa and Ohio State shutdown CB Jeffrey Okudah. Tua is a slight -110 favorite at FanDuel and -115 at PointsBet, with Okudah + 195 at FanDuel and + 175 at PointsBet. The key here is what the Detroit Lions decide to do. The Lions hold the 3rd overall pick. If they keep it, they would likely lean Okudah. But if Detroit trades the pick to a team such as Miami, which has been linked to Tua, then the Crimson Tide signal-caller could be bound for South Beach.

Exact Outcome Odds

Instead of picking the top three picks individually, bettors can also select a top-3 exact outcome. Burrow, Young and Tua is the favorite at + 100 at FanDuel, + 225 at DraftKings and -106 at PointsBet. Betting this prop at DraftKings would be the smartest play due to the increased plus money. Burrow, Young, Okudah is + 220 at FanDuel, + 275 at DraftKings and + 230 at PointsBet.

Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round

Based on mock drafts and oddsmaker projections, the smart money is on four quarterbacks going in the first round: Burrow, Tua, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love. The next two rated QBs are Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm, but both are projected for Round 2 and beyond. The over/under for Round 1 QBs is 4.5 at Draft Kings with heavy -455 juice on the under and + 340 on the over. FanDuel is also 4.5 with the under -480 and over + 330. PointsBet is 4.5 with the under -435 and the over + 300. The market is in agreement that the under 4.5 is the sharp play.

Total Wide Receivers in the First Round

This year's wide receiver class has been hyped up as one of the best in years. The oddsmakers tend to agree, at least in terms of the total first-round picks. The line is set at 5.5 and the over is being juiced to -154 at PointsBet with the under + 120. FanDuel has over 5.5 at -152, under + 120 and DraftKings has 5.5 over at -143, under + 118. To hit the over, you need six first-round wideouts or more. Based on mock drafts, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs are locks. You would then need three more of the following: Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Denzel Mims, Laviska Shenault Jr, Jalen Raegor and Brandon Aiyuk. 

Who will be drafted first: Justin Herbert or Jordan Love?

PointsBet: Herbert -371, Love + 265

FanDuel: Herbert -340, Love + 240

Who will be drafted first: Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb?

PointsBet: Jeudy -143, Lamb + 115

FanDuel: Jeudy -154, Lamb + 120

What round will Jalen Hurts be selected?

PointsBet: Round 1 + 1300, Round 2 + 180, Round 3 + 115, Round 4 + 385

FandDuel: Round 1 + 1300, Round 2 + 160, Round 3 + 100, Round 4 + 370

Total Running Backs selected in Round 1

FanDuel 0.5 over -340, under -142

PointsBet 0.5 over -286, under + 200

Who will be selected first: D'Andre Swift or Jonathan Taylor?

PointsBet: Swift -189, Taylor + 150

FanDuel: Swift -180, Taylor + 140

First Safety Selected

DraftKings: Xavier McKinney -177, Grant Delpit + 130

FanDuel: McKinney -190, Delpit + 160

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