Market Insights: Tackling hundreds of Super Bowl props

January 24, 2020 01:18 AM

Welcome to Propapalooza. 

Yesterday was like Christmas morning for both wiseguys and Average Joes as several sportsbooks released their long anticipated menu of Super Bowl prop bets. 

Prop bets, also known as propositional bets, exotics, or just "fun bets," are any kind of bet on a game that isn't a conventional spread, moneyline or over/under bet. The most popular props are typically player props (will Patrick Mahomes throw over over or under 308.5 yards?), but there are literally hundreds to choose from. 

Props are available year-round for almost all major sports, but they absolutely explode for the Super Bowl. In recent years, the handle for prop bets (the amount of money accepted by the books) has inched closer and closer to the handle for actual Super Bowl betting. This year it may even exceed it. 

South Point released their props at 2 p.m. PT yesterday. Sportsbook Director Chris Andrews told VSiN "I think we did about $150K in the first 25 minutes." 

The limits are $2K per prop bet.

Andrews reported early action on the following props

-Total completions for Patrick Mahomes 28.5 to 26, six hits on the under

-Total completions for Jimmy Garoppolo 21.5 to 19.5, 3 hits on the under

-Total passing yards for Jimmy Garoppolo 256.5 to 246.5, 5 hits on the under

-Total combined touchdowns for both teams 6.5, 3 hits on the under

-Total sacks by 49ers 2.5, 4 hits on under

Andrews told me "the public likes all kinds of stuff, mostly over on just about everything."

The SuperBook released a 33-page prop packet last night at 7 p.m. PT. Our very own Dave Tuley reported a line of 30 "mostly professional bettors" placing wagers more than an hour after the ticket windows opened for business.

Circa Sports will release their props today. They are offering $2k limits on props at the counter and $1K on the app. Circa expects long lines and will likely limit bettors to 3 props at a time. 

Friday's action features 11 NBA games and 10 college basketball games. For an updated breakdown of sharp action across the marketplace, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Before we start digging into early prop bets, it's important to note two big ground rules. First, you cannot parlay props with other props. Second, all the "wacky" props that people like to bet on, including the length of the national anthem, the color of the gatorade thrown on the winning coach, commercials and what songs will be sung during the Halftime Show are not available in Nevada. The Gaming Control board does not allow it. So if you're looking for those bets you will have to go to New Jersey or find a global (offshore) book.  

Generally speaking, a lot of pro bettors target minus props (favorites) while the public loves betting dog props with big payouts. 

At VSiN, we are compiling all prop bet sheets here.

Here are some notable props via South Point

Will the game go to overtime?

Yes + 550, No -800

Will there be a safety?

Yes + 500, No -700

*wiseguys are known to target "No" on both the safety and overtime prop. 

What will the opening coin toss be?

Heads -102, Tails -102

Will there be a successful 2-point conversion?

Yes + 200, No -240

Will there be a roughing the passer penalty?

Yes -120, No + 100

Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown?

Yes + 195, No -230

Will the last play of the game be a kneel down?

Yes + 115, No -135

Total interceptions in the game

Over 1.5 (+ 120), Under 1.5 (-140)

Total fumbles in the game

Over 1.5 (+ 250), Under 1.5 (-300)

Who will have the most penalty yards?

Chiefs -160, 49ers + 140

Will the team that scores first win the game?

Yes -175, No + 155

Largest lead in the game by either team

Over 14.5 points (-130), Under 14.5 points (+ 110)

Field goals by Robbie Gould

Over 1.5 (-140), Under 1.5 (-120)

Field goals by Harrison Butker

Over 1.5 (-200), Under 1.5 (+ 175)

Will Mahomes throw an interception?

Yes + 130, No -150

Will Garoppolo throw an interception?

Yes + 115, No -135

Super Bowl MVP

Patrick Mahomes + 120

Jimmy Garoppolo + 300

Raheem Mostert + 800

Damien Williams + 1200

George Kittle, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce + 1500

Nick Bosa + 2000

Deebo Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders + 3000

Sammy Watkins + 4000

Mecole Hardman, Tevin Coleman + 5000

Richard Sherman, Tyrann Mathieu + 7500

Since 2000, a quarterback has won the Super Bowl MVP 12 times (Brady 4 times, Foles, Flacco, Eli Manning twice, Rodgers, Brees, Kurt Warner)

Other winners include wide receivers Julian Edelman, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Deion Branch

Only four winners have been defensive players (Ray Lewis, Dexter Jackson, Malcolm Smith and Von Miller.

First TD scorer

Raheem Mostert + 450

Damien Williams + 600

Tyreek Hill + 700

Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel + 800

Emmanuel Sanders + 1200

Tevin Coleman + 1500

Patrick Mahomes, Kendrick Bourne, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman + 1800

Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Breida + 2000

Demarcus Robinson + 2500

Darwin Thompson, Kyle Juszczyk + 3000

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