Market Insights: Super Bowl trends worth considering

January 21, 2020 05:11 AM

In Monday's newsletter, we discussed how early betting is shaping up for Super Bowl 54. After opening at a pick'em, both professional and casual money has come down on the Chiefs, which has pushed the line to Kansas City -1 or even -1.5 at some shops. More than 80% of early betting has hammered the over, pushing the total up from 51.5 to 54 or even 54.5. Our very own Chris Andrews has reported that South Point has taken in 75 bets on the over and only 1 on the under thus far. 

Over the next two weeks we'll be sure to update you with any notable line movement. You can also monitor the market on your own by bookmarking our free VSIN NFL Live Odds page

Tuesday's action features 1 NBA game, 5 NHL games and 24 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of sharp action across the marketplace be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Now let's dig into some historical Super Bowl betting trends to see if we can identify any profitable edges that we can incorporate into our handicapping.

Super Bowl trends

Since 2003, dogs have held a distinct advantage in the Super Bowl going 10-6 ATS (62.5%) according to Bet Labs Sports. Dogs have also covered by an average margin of 6.06-points. As a result, betting dogs to win straight up on the moneyline has been profitable as well. They have gone 7-9 (43.8%), but profited roughly 5 units due to the plus-money payouts. 

Here is a breakdown of every Super Bowl over the past 16 years. 

2019: Patriots (-2) defeat Rams 13-3

2018: Eagles (+ 4.5) defeat Patriots 41-33

2017: Patriots (-3) defeat Falcons 34-28

2016: Broncos (+ 4.5) defeat Panthers 24-10

2015: Patriots (-1) defeat Seahawks 28-24

2014: Seahawks (+ 1.5) defeat Broncos 43-8

2013: Ravens (+ 4.5) defeat 49ers 34-31

2012: Giants (+ 3) defeat Patriots 21-17

2011: Packers (-3) defeat Steelers 31-25

2010: Saints (+ 4.5) defeat Colts 31-17

2009: Cardinals (+ 6.5) lose to Steelers 27-23 but cover

2008: Giants (+ 12.5) defeat Patriots 17-14

2007: Colts (-6.5) defeat Bears 29-17

2006: Steelers (-4) defeat Seahawks 21-10

2005: Eagles (+ 7) lose to Patriots 24-21 but cover

2004: Panthers (+ 7) lose to Patriots 32-29 but cover

Following line movement is also meaningful. The Super Bowl is the most heavily bet game of the year across all sports. However, oddsmakers are moving lines due to sharp action, not Average Joe bets. 

Since 2003, when a line moves at least a half-point toward a team, those teams are 9-5 ATS (64.3%). This includes 5-5 ATS toward a favorite (think -3 to -3.5) and a perfect 4-0 ATS toward a dog (think + 3 to + 2.5). 

When it comes to the total, overs and unders are an even 8-8 (50%) over the past 16 Super Bowls. When the total is 50 or higher the under is 4-1 (80%). 

Super Bowl 54 Props

We also received our first batch of prop bets for the big game. Here they are courtesy of South Point.

Team totals

49ers 26.5 (-110 both sides)

Chiefs 27 (-110 both sides)

Will there be a safety?

Yes + 500

No -700

Will the game go to overtime?

Yes + 550

No -800

Will there be a successful 2-point conversion?

Yes + 200

No -240 

Super Bowl betting limits at Circa Sports

Openers (Sunday): $100K for sides, $10K for totals, $25K for moneylines

Monday: $200K sides, $25K totals, $50K moneylines

Tuesday to gameday: $500K sides, $100K totals, $200K moneylines

 

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