Market Insights: Sharp Action on New York Jets' Season Win Total

May 6, 2020 12:53 AM

Last season was a tale of two halves for the New York Jets. The first half was an absolute disaster with second-year quarterback Sam Darnold missing three weeks due to mono and New York going a putrid 1-7 over their first eight games. The season looked lost but then the Jets bounced back in the second half, finishing 6-2 down the stretch to give first-year head coach Adam Gase something to build upon heading into the 2020 season. 

The Jets are back in the headlines today after signing running back Frank Gore to a 1-year deal on Tuesday. Gore, who turns 37 later this month, is an ageless wonder entering his 16th season. He rushed for 599 yards with Buffalo last year and ranks 3rd all-time in the NFL in rushing yards with 15.347, trailing only Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton. Gore will be a back-up to starter Le'Veon Bell. Gore is known as a fantastic teammate and great veteran locker room presence. He played under Gase in Miami two years ago.

After finishing last season 7-9, oddsmakers have set the Jets' win total at 6.5 for this upcoming season. Based on the juice across the market, the over seems to be taking in sharp action. At both Circa Sports and FanDuel, the over 6.5 is being juiced up to -115, which means the oddsmakers have liability on the over and are forcing you to pay a higher price as a result. PointsBet opened at 6.5 and has recently jumped up to 7 (now juiced under -120). DraftKings is holding firm at 6.5 with standard -110 juice on both sides. 

The Jets are unlikely to make the playoffs, though. FanDuel has New York -460 to miss the postseason and + 340 to make it. New York has the third-best odds to win the AFC East at + 750, trailing the Patriots + 120, Bills + 130 and ahead of the Dolphins + 900. The Jets are a + 3700 longshot to win the AFC and + 7000 to win the Super Bowl. 

While making the playoffs seems like a stretch, the key is the over 6.5 regular season win total. Essentially, you are asking yourself this question: can this year's Jets go 7-9 again? With a healthy Darnold and Tom Brady no longer in the AFC East, you would think another 7-9 season is doable. In fact, a slight improvement over last season seems highly possible, if not likely. 

The Jets solidified their offensive line in the draft by selecting mammoth Louisville star tackle Mekhi Becton 11th overall in the first round. In the second round the Jets added highly touted Baylor wide receiver Denzel Mims. In free agency, New York added WR Breshad Perriman along with offensive linemen George Fant and Connor McGovern. It's clear based on the draft and free agency that General Manager Joe Douglas is focused on adding weapons and more protection for Darnold, who is looking to take another step forward entering his 3rd full season. 

One disadvantage for the Jets is the fact that they have the 2nd-toughest schedule this season. Their 2020 opponents went a combined 136-119-1 (.533) last season. Only the Patriots have a tougher schedule (.537).

Here are the Jets' opponents this year

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Bills

Dolphins

Patriots

Colts

Chiefs

Chargers

Rams

Seahawks

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