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Market Insights: Pro Bowl offers taste of football this weekend

January 23, 2020 12:10 AM

We are now just 10 days from Super Bowl Sunday. We haven't seen any line movement over the past 24-48 hours. The Chiefs, behind two-thirds of bets, remain at -1 after opening at a pick'em. The total is sitting chilly at 54.5 after opening at 51.5.

You may not know it, but we actually have another football game to get down in just three days -- the Pro Bowl. Yes, you can bet on the Pro Bowl. 

The NFL's All-Star game takes place this Sunday at Camping Bowl Stadium in Orlando. Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET and the game will be televised on ESPN. 

Thursday's action features 3 NBA games and 56 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of sharp action across the marketplace, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Pro Bowl Betting Analysis and Trends

While many bettors may scoff at the Pro Bowl due to the lack of tackling, vanilla defense and exhibition-nature with nothing to play for, veteran wiseguys have long enjoyed the matchup due to its overlooked, under-the-radar betting value.

This year's Pro Bowl lists the AFC as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5.

Historically, dogs have been a smart Pro Bowl bet. According to Bet Labs Sports, dogs have gone 12-4 ATS (75%) since 2003. This includes both the conventional AFC/NFC matchups as well as the three year stretch from 2014 to 2016 when we had Team Rice vs Team Irvin, Team Irvin vs Team Carter and Team Sanders vs Team Rice. 

Underdogs haven't just squeaked by, they have covered by a average margin of 4.78 points. This means that if they're + 7, they are only losing by two or three points. 

In fact, betting Pro Bowl dogs on the moneyline has been highly profitable. Dogs have gone 9-6 (60%) straight up, raking in more than 7 units. The NFC is even-money on the moneyline (AFC -120). 

It's also a misconception that Pro Bowls feature zero defense and tons of scoring—at least when it comes betting the under. Since 2003, the under has gone 9-7 (56.3%). In previous years, we saw Pro Bowl totals in the 60s or even the 70s or 80s. However, the total has sharply decreased over the past few seasons. The under is 3-0 over the past three years. Last year the AFC won 26-7. The total was 54.5. 

2020-2021 Super Bowl Odds

Betting on the NFL never stops. The ticket windows are open year-round. While the Chiefs-49ers showdown consumes the current spotlight, sportsbooks have quietly begun releasing odds for next year's Super Bowl. On the one hand, it's hard to place a futures bet before knowing what happens in terms of the draft, free agency, injuries and retirements. But this uncertainty also provides unique value if you are able to identify a team with an edge, especially a longshot, and pounce before the odds shorten.

Here are the opening odds at Circa Sports

Chiefs, Ravens + 650

49ers + 800

Saints + 1000

Patriots + 1100

Cowboys + 1500

Steelers + 1800

Seahawks, Packers + 2000

Rams, Vikings, Eagles, Browns + 2500

Bears + 3000

Titans, Texans + 3500

Falcons, Bills, Chargers + 4000

Colts + 4500

Buccaneers, Lions, Broncos, Raiders + 6000

Cardinals + 7500

Jets + 10000

Giants, Jaguars + 15000

Panthers, Redskins, Dolphins + 20000

Bengals + 3000

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