Market Insights: Last look at NFL draft

April 23, 2020 12:36 AM

The long wait is finally over. Welcome to the 2020 NFL Draft. 

The first round kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. ET and will be conducted via virtual telecast with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announcing the picks from his home. Before we examine some last second prop betting movement, we have some great news to share thanks to our friends in Virginia. 

Just a few short weeks ago, it looked like Virginia was poised to pass legalized sports betting. Lawmakers in the House and Senate both signed off on a bill, which was then sent to Gov. Ralph Northam. The governor requested two amendments to the bill: an increase in licensing fees and allowing NASCAR to apply for a license so they could accept wagering on site. 

Yesterday, both chambers approved Northam's request and sent the bill back to the Governor's desk. All that's left is for Northam to sign the bill into law, which is expected to happen within the next couple of weeks. In other words, Virginia is about to become the 22nd state to legalize sports betting. Both mobile and in-person wagering is included in the bill. Bettors will not be able to wager on Virginia college teams. 

In other sports betting news, it looks like Tom Brady and Phil Mickelson will be facing off against Peyton Manning and Tigers Woods in an 18-hole celebrity golf challenge next month called "The Match: Champions for Charity." The event will be televised on TNT with money going to benefit Coronavirus relief. Westgate has released an early line with Manning/Woods a -150 favorite and Brady/Mickelson a + 130 dog.

Now onto the Draft . . .

The first two picks seem to be locked in with LSU QB Joe Burrow -100000 to be selected first overall and Ohio State edge rushed Chase Young -3000 to be selected second overall.

Rumors are swirling that the Dolphins are looking to trade up from the #5 pick to the #3 pick to select Georgia offensive lineman Andrew Thomas. However, Thomas' odds haven't reflected this move. Tristan Wirfs is a slight + 110 favorite to be the first "Hog Molly" selected at FanDuel, followed by Jedrick Wills + 125 and Thomas + 550. Jeffrey Okudah (+ 105) and Tua (+ 270) have the best odds to be selected 3rd overall. Maybe the Thomas rumors are just a smokescreen.

At wide receiver, it's been a dead-heat for the first receiver selected between Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. Over the past 24-hours we've seen Lamb's odds rise to -120 and Jeudy slip to + 145.

D'Andre Swift is -200 to be the first running back selected (DraftKings). Xavier McKinney is -250 to be the first safety selected. Cole Kmet is -305 to be the first tight end selected. 

Sharp money has continued to pour in on under 4.5 QBs in Round 1 (-670 at DK) and under 0.5 TEs in Round 1 (-670). 

We might be in for a lot of wheeling and dealing. The total number of Round 1 trades is set at 5.5 at DK with the over juiced up to -121. 

Alabama is a -278 favorite to have more first round picks than LSU (+ 220). Both teams are set at over/under 5.5 first round picks with liability on the under (-134 Alabama and -305 LSU). 

At linebacker, Kenneth Murray is a slight -137 favorite to be selected before Patrick Queen (+ 113). 

At FanDuel, Tua's over/under is 5.5 with juice to the under -140. Herbert is also 5.5 with juice to the over -140. QB Jordan Love has seen his player prop over/under slip from 19.5 to 22.5 with -115 juice on the over. 

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