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Market Insights: Is it time to believe in the Dallas Cowboys?

May 3, 2020 12:27 AM

Another free-agent quarterback domino fell Saturday as former Bengals veteran Andy Dalton inked a one-year deal with the Dallas Cowboys. The contract has a base value of $3 million and could reach $7 million with incentives and bonuses. It's a homecoming for Dalton, 32, who was born in Katy, Texas and attended TCU. 

Dalton may not see the field since he's set to backup Dak Prescott (who hasn't missed a game in his four-year career). However, his addition adds depth to the Dallas roster and only further solidifies the Cowboys as a legitimate contender in 2020. 

The Cowboys finished last season a disappointing 8-8. After leading the division for much of the season, Dallas stumbled down the stretch going 2-4 and losing the NFC East crown to the Eagles. However, the Boys enter this season with high expectations and a chip on their shoulder. Oddsmakers seem to like their chances to bounce back. 

Dallas has a win total of 9.5 this season, which is tied with the Eagles for the 6th highest win total in the NFL. Only the Chiefs (11.5), Ravens (11.5 or 11), 49ers (10.5), Saints (10.5 or 10) and Bucs (10 or 9.5) are higher. 

What's interesting about the Cowboys' win total is that the over is being juiced up across the board. At DraftKings, it's 9.5 over -134. At FanDuel and PointsBet, it's 9.5 over -150. The fact that the over is juiced at every book signals a market consensus that liability is on the over. Books are forcing you to pay a higher price on the over because that's the side sharps have targeted. In other words, it looks like the smart money is on Dallas going 10-6 or better this year. 

Dallas is also favored to the win the NFC East. The Cowboys are + 110 at DraftKings, + 105 at FanDuel and -110 at PointsBet. Once again, it's a two team race for the division with the the Eagles close behind (+ 135, + 140, + 115). Dallas is -225 to make the playoffs at DraftKings and FanDuel and -233 at PointsBet.

If you're looking to place a futures bet, the Cowboys are + 900 to win the NFC at DraftKings (trailing only the 49ers + 475, Bucs + 600 and Saints + 700). Dallas has the 6th-best Super Bowl odds at + 1800. Only the Chiefs + 600, Ravens + 700, 49ers + 1000, Bucs + 1200 and Saints + 1400 are higher. 

Dallas has had a strong offseason. The Cowboys hired Mike McCarthy as their new head coach, then signed safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, defensive tackles Dontari Poe and Gerald McCoy, kicker Greg Zuerlein and re-signed wide receiver Amari Cooper, tight end Blake Jarwin, linebacker Sean Lee and placed the exclusive rights franchise tag on Prescott. Dallas then added Oklahoma star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb in the draft. 

If you like the Cowboys over 9.5 wins, here's another feather in your cap: Dallas has the easiest schedule of any team in the NFC and the 3rd-easiest schedule overall. Their 2020 opponents went a combined 117-138-1 last season (.459). Only the Steelers (.457) and Ravens (.438) have an easier schedule. 

Here is Dallas' schedule for the upcoming season


vs Eagles

vs Giants

vs Redskins

vs Browns

vs Cardinals

vs 49ers

vs Steelers

vs Falcons


at Eagles

at Giants

at Redskins

at Ravens

at Bengals

at Rams

at Vikings

at Seahawks

Prescott is + 1200 to win MVP at DraftKings, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (+ 400), Lamar Jackson (+ 600) and Russell Wilson (+ 700). 

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