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Market Insights: How money is flowing for today's divisional games

January 12, 2020 02:00 AM

The Titans christened Divisional Round weekend with their second major upset of the playoffs, taking down the top-seeded Ravens 28-12. Tennessee received a sharp line freeze, opening at plus 10, reaching plus 9.5 and closing at plus 10 despite a slight majority of bets laying the points with Baltimore. The Titans closed plus 400 on the moneyline.

In the early game, the 49ers took care of business and defeated the Vikings 27-10, covering as 7-point favorites. 

The story of the day continued to be the stellar performance of unders, which went a perfect 2-0. Unders are now 6-0 this playoffs, with outdoor unders 4-0. Outdoor playoffs unders are now 77-56 (58%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports. 

Tennessee will now face the winner of Houston-Kansas City in the AFC Championship game while San Francisco will host the winner of Seattle-Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. 

For gameday analysis and betting updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 9 a.m.-Noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be breaking down all the late sharp action leading up to kickoff.

For now, let's discuss where the sharp money is flowing for today's two big games.

3:05 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (11-6, 4th seed) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, 2nd seed)

The Texans survived and advanced during Wild Card weekend, but it wasn't easy. Houston rallied from a 16-0 deficit to beat the Bills 22-19 in overtime, covering by the skin of their teeth as 2.5-point favorites. The Texans are 8-8-1 ATS on the season but 5-2-1 ATS on the road, averaging 23.53 PPG on offense and allowing 23.76 PPG on defense. Kansas City is coming off a first round bye after finishing the regular season 12-4 straight up and 11-5 ATS, including 5-3 ATS at home. The Chiefs averaged 28.19 PPG on offense and allowed 19.25 PPG on defense. 

This line opened with Kansas City listed as an 8-point home favorite. Sharps immediately pounded the Chiefs, pushing the line up to 9.5. When some books reached 10 they took in sharp buyback on the Texans at the key number of plus 10, dropping it back down to 9.5. The Texans have a lot of value as a road dog getting big points in the playoffs. Divisional round dogs are 39-25 ATS (61%) since 2003. Big playoff dogs plus 7 or more are 37-25 ATS (60%). Also, teams coming off a first round bye are only 44-53 ATS (45%). The Texans traveled to Arrowhead in mid-October and upset the Chiefs 31-24 as 3.5-point dogs. 

The total opened at 49 and sharp action has ticked up a point to 51.5. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds. The weather suggests some under value as the forecast calls for 7-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in the postseason the under is 25-13 (66%) since 2003. Houston has gone 10-7 to the under this season while Kansas City is 8-8. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has traditionally favored road teams 57.1% ATS and unders 57.1% historically.

6:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (12-5, 5th seed) at Green Bay Packers (13-3, 2nd seed)

The final game of Divisional Round Weekend is shaping up to be a classic Pros vs Joes mismatch. Seattle took down the Eagles 17-9 on Wild Card Weekend, covering and winning straight up as either a pick'em or 1-point dog. With the win, Seattle improved to 8-1 on the road this season, including 6-2-1 ATS. Despite their impressive record, the Seahawks are just 8-8-1 ATS overall, averaging 24.82 PPG on offense and giving up 23.94 PPG on defense. The Packers are entering the postseason on a hot streak and riding a 5-game winning streak. Green Bay went 10-6 ATS (including 5-3 ATS at home), averaging 23.5 PPG on offense and giving up 19.56 PPG on defense. 

This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point favorite. The public can't believe Russell Wilson and the Hawks are getting points and roughly two-thirds of bets are rushing to the window to back Seattle. However, despite this lopsided support, the line has ticked up to Packers -4.5, signaling some early smart money on the Packers laying the points. However, when the line reached 4.5, that's when sharps made their move on Seattle, hitting the Seahawks plus the hook ( 4.5), dropping the line back down to 4.

Sharp money has also leaned on the under as the total opened at 46 and has either stayed the same or ticked down to 45.5. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures in the low 20s with 7 MPH winds at Lambeau. Seattle is 8-8-1 to the under this season, but Green Bay is 10-6 to the under, including 5-3 to the under at home. Clete Blakemen, the lead ref, favors road teams 52.3% ATS and unders 53.3%.

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