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Market Insights: Examining juiced up NFL win totals to identify where liability exists

March 24, 2020 01:02 AM

In yesterday's newsletter, we discussed how the juice isn't just an additional tax that bettors must pay for sportsbooks to accept their bet. It also provides bettors valuable insight into where the liability exists and helps bettors anticipate line movement so they can determine when to place their bet.

Today, we are going to take a look at juice prices in the NFL Win Totals market to see where oddsmakers are forcing bettors to pay a more expensive price. By focusing on teams with "juiced up" win totals, we can identity where sharp money is coming in, thereby helping us to make more informed wagers. 

Most win totals will offer even -110 juice on both sides. That doesn't provide any insight for bettors. It's the win totals that are heavily juiced on one side that we're looking for. This means the books have taken sizable bets from respected players on the juiced up side. It could also be a reflection of the team recently making a big trade or free agent addition -- or losing players via trade or free agency -- causing the juice to lean one way or the other.

However, it's also important to note that some books may be outliers in terms of their juiced up win totals. The key is to identify teams that are being juiced up on the same side at multiple books. This means that oddsmakers are in agreement with where the smart money lies.

Here are a few notable win totals with market consensus.

Buffalo Bills Over 8.5 wins

Bills Mafia finished last season with a 10-6 record. They also held a big lead over the Texans in the wild-card round before blowing it late in agonizing fashion. This offseason, Buffalo has added star WR Stefon Diggs in a trade and beefed up their already stout defense with the additions of CB Josh Norman, DT's Vernon Butler and Quinton Jefferson, DE Mario Addison and LB A.J. Klein. Buffalo will also be counting on QB Josh Allen to take another step forward in year 3. Best of all, Buffalo no longer has to face Tom Brady anymore, leaving the AFC East wide open for the first time in 20 years. Buffalo Over 8.5 wins is being juiced up to -125 at both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Bills are a young team on the rise with a good culture led by Head Coach Sean McDermott. Going 9-7 or better seems like a smart bet here.

Minnesota Vikings Over 8.5 Wins

The Vikings went 10-6 last season and upset the Saints 26-20 in the wild-card round before falling to the 49ers 27-10 in the divisional round. In the process, Kirk Cousins, much maligned for never winning the big game, finally got the monkey off his back. The Vikings have lost several big names this offseason, including Diggs, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, Linval Joseph and likely Everson Griffin and Xavier Rhodes as well. The Vikings did add DT Michael Pierce from the Ravens. Still, Minnesota boasts a winning QB-Coach combo and their laundry list of defections opens up opportunities for young players to emerge. The 8.5 win total seems a bit low and it looks like sharps agree. The over 8.5 is being juiced up to -130 at FanDuel, -136 at PointsBet and -121 at DraftKings. The Vikings foundation is still strong and should be capable of winning at least 9 games this season.

Las Vegas Raiders Under 7.5 Wins

The Raiders are a source of massive buzz around NFL circles--but not for their play on the field or the direction they're heading. It all stems from their move from Oakland to Vegas and the grand opening of their new stadium this season. The Raiders went 7-9 last season. Jon Gruden is in win-now mode but has only won 11 games in first two seasons back with the Raiders. Derek Carr remains a question mark at quarterback. Vegas signed Marcus Mariota this offseason to light a fire under Carr. The overall roster has very little depth. Plus the Raiders play in the tough AFC West and have to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs twice a year. The under 7.5 wins is being juiced up to -120 at FanDuel and -141 at PointsBet. Based on the juice, sportsbooks and sharps see another 7-9 or worse year. 

More juiced up win totals

Carolina Panthers Over 5.5 (-120) at FanDuel

Houston Texans Over 7.5 (-120) at FanDuel

Los Angeles Rams Under 9 (-135) at PointsBet

Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 (-120) at FanDuel, Over 9.5 (-125) at PointsBet

New Orleans Saints Over 10.5 (-121) at PointsBet

New York Giants Under 6.5 (-125) at PointsBet

San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 (-130) at FanDuel, Over 10.5 (-130) at PointsBet

Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5 (-125) at FanDuel

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