Live On Air

Streaming now: Prime Time Action

play Watch Live radio Listen Live

Market Insights: Clemson-LSU caps 3-day football frenzy

January 13, 2020 05:35 AM

We entered the weekend with the Elite 8. Now we are down to the Final Four. 

Sunday was another thrilling day of NFL Playoff betting, as both favorites covered and overs went 2-0 (although unders still lead 6-2 in the playoffs).

In the early game, the Texans raced out to an improbable 24-0 lead over the Chiefs. But then Kansas City turned it on and never looked back, blowing out Houston 51-31 and easily covering as 10-point favorites. 

In the nightcap, it was a tale of two halves as Green Bay led Seattle 21-3 at the half, but then the Seahawks outscored the Packers 20-7 in the second half. Still, it wasn't enough for Russell Wilson and company as Aaron Rodgers and the Pack won 28-23, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Seattle failed a two-point conversion attempt late which would have made the score 28-25 and covered the spread.

Now it's on the AFC and NFC Championship games. Here are the lines for both games.

Chiefs -7.5 vs Titans, OU 52

49ers -7 vs Packers, OU 45

We'll have detailed betting breakdowns of both games in the next two newsletters.

Monday's action includes 7 NBA games, 5 NHL games, 11 college basketball games and, of course, the college football national championship. For an updated breakdown of sharp action across the marketplace, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Our epic three-day football frenzy isn't over quite yet. Let's discuss where sharp money is falling for tonight's national title game.

8 p.m. ET: LSU (14-0, ranked 1st) vs Clemson (14-0, ranked 3rd)

LSU is one of the most dominant college football teams we've seen in years. The Tigers are 14-0, including 9-3-2 ATS, and have beaten their opponents by an average score of 49-22. LSU also features the Heisman Trophy winner and likely No. 1 overall pick, Joe Burrow, and just demolished Oklahoma 63-28 in the semifinal, easily covering as 12.5-point favorites. Clemson went 11-3 ATS on the season, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 45-12. The Tigers have won 29 consecutive games. Clemson sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence is 25-0 as a starter. 

This line opened with LSU listed as a 5-point favorite (some books opened closer to -4). The public is pounding LSU to the tune of nearly three-out-of-four bets, which means this is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided title bouts in recent memory. This heavy support pushed the line up to the key number of 6. Some books even reached 6.5. That's when we saw major sharp buyback on Clemson, dropping the line down to 5.5 or even 5 where it rests now. 

LSU has a "home-field" advantage as this game will be played at the Superdome, home of the Saints and also LSU's backyard. Clemson has unique value in this game, though. The Tigers are super contrarian in what will be the most heavily bet game of the season (maybe even all time). The Tigers are also the beneficiary of an inflated line. A unique buy low, sell high recency bias element exists as well, as LSU rolled over Oklahoma in the semifinal and Clemson barely edged Ohio State 29-23 as 2.5-point favorites. Clemson has an experience advantage as well, having played in three of the last four national title games and won two of them (2016 and 2019). Also, dogs are a perfect 5-0 straight up and ATS in the last five national title games. 

The total opened at 69. Despite two-thirds of bets taking the over the total has fallen to 68, signaling some sharp under money. The over is 9-5 in LSU games this season but the under is 8-6 in Clemson games. 

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All
  • Bulls' Futures Improve with DeRozan, Plus Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

    Bulls' Futures Improve with DeRozan, Plus Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

    Day 1 of NBA Free Agency was won by the Miami Heat, who improved from + 3500 to + 2500 to win the NBA Title after signing Kyle Lowry....
  • Mr. Ed's Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day (8-4)

    Mr. Ed's Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day (8-4)

    MONEY MATTER$: After three weeks, it appears Mr. Ed is better at predicting the weather than picking winners … No one promised Mr. Ed a rose...
  • youmans

    Sharps get in on preseason action

    When the NFL preseason kicks off Thursday, the only action Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might get is a TV interview with a sideline reporter....
  • USATSI_16495000

    My favorite Olympic bets for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning

    It was a disappointing walk-off loss for Team Israel against the Dominican Republic in Olympic baseball. I thought we were going to get a nice winner...
  • reynolds

    Best bets for Memphis PGA event

    The PGA Tour took a week off for the Olympic Games but returns to Memphis for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational with an elite field of just 66 players....
  • kuhn

    Analytical look at UFC 265

    (To view the charts accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) Even with the loss of an Amanda Nunes title defense, the fight card...
  • finocchiaro

    Gane, Lewis offer UFC contrasts

    UFC 265 will be held in front of a packed house Saturday in Houston. This fight card is stacked with key matchups and clashes of styles featuring fighters...
  • hill

    Split ticket: 1 bet on NFL, 1 on MLB

    Surely some of you have these types of people in your life: “You bet on the NFL preseason?” Those who judge you for betting on the NFL exhibition...
  • tuley

    Tuley's Takes on NFL topics

    I celebrated my 55th birthday Monday, and my best gift every year at the Tuley’s Takes home office party is that football season is here! The...
  • makinen_cfl

    Getting reacquainted with CFL

    Football returns this weekend, not quite in full force. But unlike the NFL preseason game Thursday night, the results actually count in the Canadian Football...
  • andrews

    Outlooks for Steelers, Cowboys

    Don’t get caught napping! Pro football returns Thursday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys in the annual Hall of Fame Game...
  • makinennfl

    Betting trends for HOF game

    (To view the chart accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) It’s not the Super Bowl or the regular-season kickoff, but the...

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close