Market Insights: Chiefs give betting public a Super Bowl victory

February 3, 2020 01:04 AM

Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl Champions.

The Chiefs came through for public bettors in the biggest game of the year, defeating the 49ers 31-20 to hoist their first Lombardi Trophy in 50 years. Roughly two-thirds of bets backed Kansas City, which opened at a pick'em and closed as a 1.5-point favorite. It was a crushing defeat for 49ers backers. After entering halftime tied 10-10, the 49ers took a 20-10 lead late into the third quarter. But then the Chiefs scored 21 unanswered points the rest of the way to seal yet another come-from-behind playoff victory. 

Super Bowl teams with a line move in their favor (Chiefs pick'em to -1.5) are now 10-5 ATS (67%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports. 

Patrick Mahomes was named Super Bowl MVP. He finished 26-42 for 286 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Mahomes was a + 110 favorite to win the award at the MGM Borgata. A quarterback has now won the MVP 13 times since 2000. 

Contrarians and sharps were able to cash the under. The total opened at 52.5 and reached 55 behind eight-out-of-10 bets taking the over. But then pros made their move and hammered the under back down to 53 or even 52.5. Super Bowl unders 50 or more are now 5-1 since 2003. The first half under also cashed (25.5). San Francisco covered the first half line at + 0.5 (tied 10-10).

Borgata sportsbook director Thomas Gable told me "unfortunately the customers made a killing today. But that's the way it goes sometimes."

Aside from the public winning big on the Chiefs, there were a handful of props that stung the house. The first was Patrick Mahomes scoring the first touchdown of the game at a huge + 2800 payouts. The second was Kyle Juszczyk scoring the first 49ers touchdown. He wasn't even listed so it qualified as "field" cashing at + 1800.

Monday's action features 10 NBA games, 3 NHL games and 14 college basketball games. Be sure to listed to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum a comprehensive betting breakdown. The podcast will be posted at rough 3:30 p.m. ET.

Before turning the page on the big game, let's look at which prop bets cashed for bettors.

-Demi Lovato's national anthem came in at roughly 1-minute and 50 seconds, handing under bettors a victory (under 2 minutes was -200).

-Tails never fails was proven true once again as the coin toss landed on tails (-110). Jimmy Vaccaro tweeted that the South Point won $5,000 on tails

-Sharps cashed their annual duo of favorite bets, no overtime (-2000) and no safety (-1400)

-No score in the first 6-minutes cashed as a -130 favorite

-First team to score was 49ers (-110)

-Both quarterbacks threw a pair of interceptions, handing over bettors a win. Garoppolo over 0.5 was -140 and Mahomes over 0.5 was + 110

-Chiefs team total over (27.5 points) cashed at -130 and 49ers team time under (26.5 points) cashed at -115

-Garoppolo under passing yards cashed (closed 238.5, under -120 and landed on 219) along with Mahomes under passing yards (closed 298.5 at -110, landed on 286).

-Mahomes rushed for 29 yards, handing over 28.5 bettors (-110) a sweaty win

-Damien Williams cashed over 53.5 rushing yards at -115 (finished with 104) and over rushing and receiving yards over 80.5. 

-Raheem Mostert went under 74.5 rushing yards at -115 (finished with 58)

-George Kittle finished with 4 catches for 36 yards, handing under bettors a pair of wins (under 5.5 catches at -105 and under 70.5 yards at -115)

-Travis Kelce caught 6 passes for 43 yards, cashing the over 5.5 catches at -160 and the under 76.5 yards at -115

-Tyreek Hill cashed both overs, catching 9 balls for 105 yards. His over 5.5 catches was + 115 and over 74.5 receiving yards was -115

-Sammy Watkins cashed both overs as well, catching 5 balls for 98 yards. His over 3.5 catches was -110 and his over 47.5 yards was -115

-Robbie Gould went over 7.5 points at -125 (finished with 8) and Harrison Butker went under 7.5 at -105 (finished with 7)

-The exact result margin "KC by 11" would have paid out + 4000.

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