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Market Insight: Take wait-and-see approach after NBA trading deadline

February 7, 2020 12:10 AM

Thursday's NBA trade deadline saw a flurry of moves across the league with several contenders, including the Heat, Rockets, Clippers and 76ers, adding key pieces to boost their playoff chances. Other teams, such as the Hawks, Warriors, Timberwolves, Cavs and Pistons dumped salary or stockpiled players for the future. Here is a run-down of the most notable trades.

-In a four-team, 12-player mega-deal the Rockets acquired Robert Covington (13.3 PPG) and the Hawks received Clint Capela (13.9 PPG, 13.8 RPG).

-Warriors traded D'Angelo Russell (23.6 PPG), Omari Spellman and Jacob Evans to the Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins (22.4 PPG), a first-round pick and second-round pick

-Heat acquired Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill in a three-way deal with the Grizzlies, who acquired Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters and Gorgui Dieng. The Timberwolves acquired James Johnson.

-Clippers acquired Marcus Morris (19.6 PPG) and Isaiah Thomas in a three-way deal with the Knicks, who received Moe Harkless, Issuf Sanon and the Clippers' first-round pick. The Wizards received Jerome Robinson.

-Cavaliers acquired Andre Drummond (17.8 PPG, 15.8 RPG) from the Pistons in exchange for Brandon Knight, John Henson and a second-round pick.

-The 76ers acquired Alec Bucks and Glenn Robinson III from the Warriors for three second-round picks.

The trade deadline affects bettors in two key ways, both near and far. Right now, it provides an opportunity to pounce on a NBA futures bet with perceived value. It's also important to remember that several of these teams involved in deadline deals will be shorthanded over the next few days as they await the trades to go through. For this reason, bettors should pay close attention to who's in and who's out as it could have a big effect on the spread and total. 

Here were the latest NBA title odds at Circa heading into Thursday's trade deadline

Lakers + 265

Clippers + 290

Bucks + 360

Rockets + 900

76ers + 1400

Nuggets, Celtics + 2200

Heat + 3000

Jazz + 2800

Raptors + 3500

Mavs + 4000

Circa was also hanging the following prop bet

Will the Lakers or Clippers win the NBA title?

Yes + 170, No -195

Friday's action features 8 NBA games, 4 NHL games and 12 college basketball games. Be sure to listen to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum for a comprehensive betting breakdown of the entire board. The podcast will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

With so many moving parts and deadline deals, many books have yet release lines for Friday's NBA games. As a result, let's turn our attention to a pair of NHL games offering value today.

7 p.m. ET: Buffalo Sabres (23-23-8) at New York Rangers (26-22-4)

When handicapping a hockey game, one of the easiest stats to focus on first are goals for and goals against-- how many goals do you score and how many do you give up? Buffalo is -17 while the Rangers are + 2. Another stat to study is home vs road splits. Buffalo is 8-14-4 on the road. New York is 15-11-2 at home. Also check out when both teams last played because a rested team is a huge advantage over a tired team. The Sabres lost last night 4-3 to lowly Detroit and are on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Rangers haven't played since Wednesday when they beat the Maple Leafs 5-3. This line opened with New York listed as a -160 home favorite and sharp money has already pushed the line up to -170 (Sabres have gone from + 145 to + 155). All of these trends, along with the line movement, point to the Rangers as the smart play.

8:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Wild (25-22-6) at Dallas Stars (30-18-5)

If the playoffs started today, the Stars would be the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference Central while the Wild would be four points out of the final wild-card spot. The Wild are -12 in goal differential while the Stars are + 6. Minnesota is 9-15-2 on the road. Dallas is 16-8-2 at home. This is even a more pronounced rest vs tired spot than the Sabres-Rangers game. Minnesota is also on the second night of a back-to-back (beat Vancouver 4-2) while the Stars haven't played since Tuesday (lost to New York Islanders 4-3). Teams with three days between games against teams who played the previous night have gone 604-426 (58.6%) since 2005, including 31-21 (60%) this season according to Bet Labs Sports. This line opened with Dallas listed as a -170 and the Stars have already moved closer to -180. Minnesota has gone from + 150 to + 155. 


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