Makinen: Best bets for MLB's final month

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September started Thursday and typically, in the baseball handicapping world, it represents a fundamental shift in how to attack the game. The date itself might just be symbolic, but the changing of the calendar represents a change in the mindset of players, fans and those setting the odds. It’s time for high stakes baseball, where the cream rises to the crop, the pretenders out themselves as such, and the point where teams that have realized their seasons as failures to pack it in. If you’re a daily baseball bettor, are you ready? After reading this piece, hopefully you will be, as you will see that there are certain concepts that have thrived of late, as well as certain teams that have played much better than others in the season’s final month over the last three years.

In putting together this “final month” of the regular season study, I built myself a database of regular season games dated Sept. 1 and later over the last three seasons. For each team, this represented around 80 games, or the equivalent of what would be a half of a typical regular season. The won-lost records were all over the map for the 30 teams, as were the situations they were playing in and the lines accompanying their games. You’ll see below that I’ve tried to make some sense of each team’s late season performance for you. I’ve also uncovered some betting systems that should help you build your bankroll over the next five weeks or so.

Late season baseball betting system #1: Despite heavy overpricing by oddsmakers, big favorites have produced big profits for bettors over the last three years in September/October regular season games, with favorites (HOME or ROAD) of -240 or higher going 120-35 (77.4%) for + 16.95 units and a ROI of 10.9%.

Late season baseball betting system #2: The most vulnerable favorites to back in late season games over the last three years have been smaller road favorites. Teams favored by -235 or less on the road in September/October regular season games since 2019 have gone 262-211 (55.4%) outright but have netted -40.6 units for their backers, a ROI of -8.6%.

Late season baseball betting system #3: The best teams in the league have been great road favorites in late season games. Those teams winning 62.5% of their games or more have gone 52-26 (66.7%) in September/October regular season games over the last three years when playing as road chalk. This has produced + 8.3 units of profit and a ROI of 10.6%. As of press time, the Astros, Mets, and Dodgers were all above that win threshold.

Late season baseball betting system #4: Familiarity has been a big part of big favorite success. Teams favored by -240 or higher in divisional September/October regular season games over the last three years have gone 86-24 (78.2%) for + 15.65 units and a ROI of 14.2%.

Late season baseball betting system #5: Unfamiliarity has meant profits for bigger underdogs. Teams playing as + 140 or higher underdogs in September/October games against non-divisional foes over the last three years have gone just 108-162 (40%) but have produced + 23.14 units of profit for a ROI of 8.6%.

When thinking about the power of these systems, you need to understand that the average baseball wager in the 2,454 sample games of this data set have produced an ROI of -2.7%, so comparing the returns on the systems to that shows you the amount of advantage these fundamental betting concepts provide.

Now, here’s a look at the September/October regular season game performance records over the last three years for the league’s 32 teams, sorted by overall ROI during that stretch.

 

  1. LA DODGERS

Overall Record: 57-20 (74.0%), + 17.75 units - ROI: 23.1% (#1 of 30)

at Home: 30-8 (78.9%), + 11.15 units - ROI: 29.3% (#2 of 30)

on Road: 27-12 (69.2%), + 6.6 units - ROI: 16.9% (#7 of 30)

as Favorite: 57-19 (75.0%), + 18.75 units - ROI: 24.7% (#3 of 30)

as Underdog: 0-1 (0.0%), -1 units - ROI: -100.0% (#30 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 38-12 (76.0%), + 10.9 units - ROI: 21.8% (#4 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 10-4 (71.4%), + 4.55 units - ROI: 32.5% (#4 of 30)

Interleague: 9-4 (69.2%), + 2.3 units - ROI: 17.7% (#9 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 56-18 (75.7%), + 19.7 units - ROI: 26.6% (#3 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 1-2 (33.3%), -1.95 units - ROI: -65.0% (#30 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 40-16 (71.4%), + 9 units - ROI: 16.1% (#4 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 17-4 (81.0%), + 8.75 units - ROI: 41.7% (#1 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: The Dodgers have cruised in each of the last three seasons in the final month, and there’s no reason to suspect otherwise this year. I do have some concerns as to whether or not their top-line pitchers are good enough to win a pennant in the deep NL playoffs, but that’s for later.

 

  1. ST. LOUIS

Overall Record: 56-36 (60.9%), + 17.15 units - ROI: 18.6% (#2 of 30)

at Home: 25-19 (56.8%), + 1.25 units - ROI: 2.8% (#11 of 30)

on Road: 31-17 (64.6%), + 15.9 units - ROI: 33.1% (#1 of 30)

as Favorite: 28-21 (57.1%), -4.65 units - ROI: -9.5% (#17 of 30)

as Underdog: 28-15 (65.1%), + 21.8 units - ROI: 50.7% (#1 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 38-24 (61.3%), + 13.1 units - ROI: 21.1% (#5 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 15-8 (65.2%), + 6.75 units - ROI: 29.3% (#6 of 30)

Interleague: 3-4 (42.9%), -2.7 units - ROI: -38.6% (#27 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 42-28 (60.0%), + 7.4 units - ROI: 10.6% (#10 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 14-8 (63.6%), + 9.75 units - ROI: 44.3% (#2 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 36-21 (63.2%), + 13.45 units - ROI: 23.6% (#1 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 20-15 (57.1%), + 3.7 units - ROI: 10.6% (#12 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Since sitting at 54-48 after 102 games, the Cardinals have erupted to take control of the NL Central Division. With the way they have rallied at the end of the season in the last three years, there’s little reason to suspect that they will yield the lead. Note their particularly strong performance in the late season underdog role.

 

  1. TORONTO

Overall Record: 48-35 (57.8%), + 14.55 units - ROI: 17.5% (#3 of 30)

at Home: 29-15 (65.9%), + 17.15 units - ROI: 39.0% (#1 of 30)

on Road: 19-20 (48.7%), -2.6 units - ROI: -6.7% (#15 of 30)

as Favorite: 31-15 (67.4%), + 9.4 units - ROI: 20.4% (#6 of 30)

as Underdog: 17-20 (45.9%), + 5.15 units - ROI: 13.9% (#5 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 37-24 (60.7%), + 16.25 units - ROI: 26.6% (#2 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 7-4 (63.6%), + 1.15 units - ROI: 10.5% (#9 of 30)

Interleague: 4-7 (36.4%), -2.85 units - ROI: -25.9% (#23 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 27-17 (61.4%), + 4.75 units - ROI: 10.8% (#9 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 21-18 (53.8%), + 9.8 units - ROI: 25.1% (#5 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 28-19 (59.6%), + 7.5 units - ROI: 16.0% (#5 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 20-16 (55.6%), + 7.05 units - ROI: 19.6% (#5 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: I have to admit I was a bit surprised to see how effective Toronto has been at the conclusion of the last three seasons, particularly at home. The Blue Jays have been the league’s most profitable host in the final month. For 2022, they have just 14 of their final 33 games at home, however, and will have a fight on their hands for an AL wild-card spot if they aren’t better on the road than they have been.

 

  1. SEATTLE

Overall Record: 42-35 (54.5%), + 12.15 units - ROI: 15.8% (#4 of 30)

at Home: 22-18 (55.0%), + 5.35 units - ROI: 13.4% (#4 of 30)

on Road: 20-17 (54.1%), + 6.8 units - ROI: 18.4% (#6 of 30)

as Favorite: 18-8 (69.2%), + 6.7 units - ROI: 25.8% (#2 of 30)

as Underdog: 24-27 (47.1%), + 5.45 units - ROI: 10.7% (#6 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 24-17 (58.5%), + 11.45 units - ROI: 27.9% (#1 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 6-6 (50.0%), -0.2 units - ROI: -1.7% (#14 of 30)

Interleague: 12-12 (50.0%), + 0.9 units - ROI: 3.8% (#11 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 16-10 (61.5%), + 4.15 units - ROI: 16.0% (#8 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 26-25 (51.0%), + 8 units - ROI: 15.7% (#7 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 25-18 (58.1%), + 8.75 units - ROI: 20.3% (#2 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 17-17 (50.0%), + 3.4 units - ROI: 10.0% (#13 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: We all remember the surge Seattle made a year ago to close the regular season, although it came up short of a playoff berth. The Mariners figure to be in better shape than that this year, with just eight of their final 32 games against teams with winning records. They will need to improve on the 54.5% winning percentage with that upcoming schedule to reach the postseason though.

 

  1. MINNESOTA

Overall Record: 49-32 (60.5%), + 11.67 units - ROI: 14.4% (#5 of 30)

at Home: 24-17 (58.5%), -1.45 units - ROI: -3.5% (#16 of 30)

on Road: 25-15 (62.5%), + 13.12 units - ROI: 32.8% (#2 of 30)

as Favorite: 33-17 (66.0%), + 4.95 units - ROI: 9.9% (#8 of 30)

as Underdog: 16-15 (51.6%), + 6.72 units - ROI: 21.7% (#4 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 36-17 (67.9%), + 12 units - ROI: 22.6% (#3 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 6-8 (42.9%), + 1.12 units - ROI: 8.0% (#11 of 30)

Interleague: 7-7 (50.0%), -1.45 units - ROI: -10.4% (#18 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 29-13 (69.0%), + 10.55 units - ROI: 25.1% (#5 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 20-19 (51.3%), + 1.12 units - ROI: 2.9% (#10 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 28-20 (58.3%), + 0.75 units - ROI: 1.6% (#10 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 21-12 (63.6%), + 10.92 units - ROI: 33.1% (#2 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Minnesota remains within striking distance of Cleveland in the AL Central and could benefit from the fact that they’ve been a far better late season team in recent years. The Twins have been particularly effective on the road and will face a key 5-game set at Cleveland on Sept. 16-19 that could determine the division champ and likely only playoff team.

 

  1. SAN FRANCISCO

Overall Record: 46-35 (56.8%), + 10.25 units - ROI: 12.7% (#6 of 30)

at Home: 25-20 (55.6%), -1.55 units - ROI: -3.4% (#15 of 30)

on Road: 21-15 (58.3%), + 11.8 units - ROI: 32.8% (#3 of 30)

as Favorite: 33-15 (68.8%), + 10.2 units - ROI: 21.3% (#5 of 30)

as Underdog: 13-20 (39.4%), + 0.05 units - ROI: 0.2% (#15 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 28-21 (57.1%), + 6.85 units - ROI: 14.0% (#6 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 11-11 (50.0%), -2.65 units - ROI: -12.0% (#17 of 30)

Interleague: 7-3 (70.0%), + 6.05 units - ROI: 60.5% (#1 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 37-17 (68.5%), + 13.15 units - ROI: 24.4% (#6 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 9-18 (33.3%), -2.9 units - ROI: -10.7% (#21 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 28-18 (60.9%), + 7.2 units - ROI: 15.7% (#6 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 18-17 (51.4%), + 3.05 units - ROI: 8.7% (#14 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: If recent results are any indication, the Giants late season performance marks figure to drop in 2022, as they lost their last seven games in August and 11 of their last 13. San Francisco has been very good at beating up lesser teams. Unfortunately, at this point, six of their final 11 scheduled series are against teams with a better record.

 

  1. COLORADO

Overall Record: 35-44 (44.3%), + 5.75 units - ROI: 7.3% (#7 of 30)

at Home: 18-22 (45.0%), -0.05 units - ROI: -0.1% (#14 of 30)

on Road: 17-22 (43.6%), + 5.8 units - ROI: 14.9% (#8 of 30)

as Favorite: 9-5 (64.3%), + 2.65 units - ROI: 18.9% (#7 of 30)

as Underdog: 26-39 (40.0%), + 3.1 units - ROI: 4.8% (#10 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 15-32 (31.9%), -8.35 units - ROI: -17.8% (#25 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 17-9 (65.4%), + 14.45 units - ROI: 55.6% (#2 of 30)

Interleague: 3-3 (50.0%), -0.35 units - ROI: -5.8% (#16 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 8-11 (42.1%), -3.85 units - ROI: -20.3% (#26 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 27-33 (45.0%), + 9.6 units - ROI: 16.0% (#6 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 16-18 (47.1%), + 2.95 units - ROI: 8.7% (#8 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 19-26 (42.2%), + 2.8 units - ROI: 6.2% (#16 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Colorado hasn’t won a lot of late season games lately, but has been such a sizable underdog that the profit amount has ranked 7th in baseball. One thing to note, though, the Rockies’ divisional performance has been poor, and they’ll face their last 16 games against NL West teams starting on Sept. 19.

 

  1. KANSAS CITY

Overall Record: 38-43 (46.9%), + 4.97 units - ROI: 6.1% (#8 of 30)

at Home: 20-25 (44.4%), -3.65 units - ROI: -8.1% (#20 of 30)

on Road: 18-18 (50.0%), + 8.62 units - ROI: 23.9% (#5 of 30)

as Favorite: 16-9 (64.0%), + 5.35 units - ROI: 21.4% (#4 of 30)

as Underdog: 22-34 (39.3%), -0.38 units - ROI: -0.7% (#17 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 24-26 (48.0%), + 5.07 units - ROI: 10.1% (#9 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 6-11 (35.3%), -3.3 units - ROI: -19.4% (#21 of 30)

Interleague: 8-6 (57.1%), + 3.2 units - ROI: 22.9% (#7 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 16-8 (66.7%), + 7.6 units - ROI: 31.7% (#2 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 22-35 (38.6%), -2.63 units - ROI: -4.6% (#13 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 17-21 (44.7%), -1.08 units - ROI: -2.8% (#12 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 21-22 (48.8%), + 6.05 units - ROI: 14.1% (#8 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Kansas City is another team that tends to play some good baseball down the stretch of recent seasons. It’s a good reflection on manager Mike Matheny that his team doesn’t quit despite being out of the playoff picture. The Royals have been particularly good in the favorite role and against teams they have a better record than. The nine remaining games against Detroit might be the only times those trends can be used in 2022 though.

 

  1. TAMPA BAY

Overall Record: 48-31 (60.8%), + 2.65 units - ROI: 3.4% (#9 of 30)

at Home: 30-12 (71.4%), + 7.4 units - ROI: 17.6% (#3 of 30)

on Road: 18-19 (48.6%), -4.75 units - ROI: -12.8% (#20 of 30)

as Favorite: 36-23 (61.0%), -4.15 units - ROI: -7.0% (#13 of 30)

as Underdog: 12-8 (60.0%), + 6.8 units - ROI: 34.0% (#2 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 26-15 (63.4%), + 4.5 units - ROI: 11.0% (#8 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 10-10 (50.0%), -6.2 units - ROI: -31.0% (#25 of 30)

Interleague: 12-6 (66.7%), + 4.35 units - ROI: 24.2% (#6 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 44-30 (59.5%), -0.6 units - ROI: -0.8% (#12 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 4-1 (80.0%), + 3.25 units - ROI: 65.0% (#1 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 28-22 (56.0%), -4.9 units - ROI: -9.8% (#16 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 20-9 (69.0%), + 7.55 units - ROI: 26.0% (#3 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Tampa Bay is another team that made a huge surge last year to clinch an AL East title. The prospects for another run like that in 2022 are slim as they are a healthy amount behind the Yankees, but another strong finish would lock up a home wild-card series. Keep an eye on the strong trend showing their ability to bounce back off of losses.

 

  1.  MILWAUKEE

Overall Record: 47-35 (57.3%), + 2.5 units - ROI: 3.0% (#10 of 30)

at Home: 27-16 (62.8%), + 3.6 units - ROI: 8.4% (#7 of 30)

on Road: 20-19 (51.3%), -1.1 units - ROI: -2.8% (#12 of 30)

as Favorite: 34-21 (61.8%), -0.1 units - ROI: -0.2% (#9 of 30)

as Underdog: 13-14 (48.1%), + 2.6 units - ROI: 9.6% (#7 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 24-19 (55.8%), + 0.9 units - ROI: 2.1% (#12 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 13-9 (59.1%), + 1.8 units - ROI: 8.2% (#10 of 30)

Interleague: 10-7 (58.8%), -0.2 units - ROI: -1.2% (#14 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 29-19 (60.4%), -0.45 units - ROI: -0.9% (#13 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 18-16 (52.9%), + 2.95 units - ROI: 8.7% (#8 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 31-19 (62.0%), + 8.45 units - ROI: 16.9% (#3 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 16-16 (50.0%), -5.95 units - ROI: -18.6% (#26 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Milwaukee is on a franchise-record surge of four straight seasons qualifying for the playoffs, with much credit going to the late season performance records detailed in this report. The Brewers will need a big September/October finish to bump up into one of the wild-card spots this year, as a run at the Cardinals and the NL Central crown seems unlikely. In this team’s favor, only 10 of the final 34 games are against teams with a winning record.

 

  1.  WASHINGTON

Overall Record: 41-46 (47.1%), + 0.75 units - ROI: 0.9% (#11 of 30)

at Home: 24-20 (54.5%), + 5.85 units - ROI: 13.3% (#5 of 30)

on Road: 17-26 (39.5%), -5.1 units - ROI: -11.9% (#19 of 30)

as Favorite: 18-16 (52.9%), -2.95 units - ROI: -8.7% (#15 of 30)

as Underdog: 23-30 (43.4%), + 3.7 units - ROI: 7.0% (#9 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 28-30 (48.3%), + 2.3 units - ROI: 4.0% (#11 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 5-11 (31.3%), -6.15 units - ROI: -38.4% (#28 of 30)

Interleague: 8-5 (61.5%), + 4.6 units - ROI: 35.4% (#3 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 10-5 (66.7%), + 3.6 units - ROI: 24.0% (#7 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 31-41 (43.1%), -2.85 units - ROI: -4.0% (#12 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 19-21 (47.5%), + 0.6 units - ROI: 1.5% (#11 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 22-25 (46.8%), + 0.15 units - ROI: 0.3% (#18 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: The Nationals play eight series against teams in the playoff hunt, giving them a nice chance to play the role of spoiler as extra motivation. Aside from that, there isn’t much left to play for in a season that was essentially tanked long ago.

 

  1.  TEXAS

Overall Record: 34-48 (41.5%), + 0.5 units - ROI: 0.6% (#12 of 30)

at Home: 17-21 (44.7%), + 2.55 units - ROI: 6.7% (#10 of 30)

on Road: 17-27 (38.6%), -2.05 units - ROI: -4.7% (#14 of 30)

as Favorite: 3-5 (37.5%), -2.8 units - ROI: -35.0% (#28 of 30)

as Underdog: 31-43 (41.9%), + 3.3 units - ROI: 4.5% (#11 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 18-30 (37.5%), -3.8 units - ROI: -7.9% (#17 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 14-15 (48.3%), + 4.25 units - ROI: 14.7% (#8 of 30)

Interleague: 2-3 (40.0%), + 0.05 units - ROI: 1.0% (#12 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 8-3 (72.7%), + 6.2 units - ROI: 56.4% (#1 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 26-45 (36.6%), -5.7 units - ROI: -8.0% (#17 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 13-21 (38.2%), -5.2 units - ROI: -15.3% (#18 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 21-27 (43.8%), + 5.7 units - ROI: 11.9% (#9 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Texas has produced a mild profit for bettors in the final month of the last three seasons but has struggled against its divisional rivals and teams with better records. Noteworthy, with five series remaining against AL West foes, including at playoff hopefuls Houston and Seattle.

 

  1.  MIAMI

Overall Record: 37-49 (43.0%), -0.8 units - ROI: -0.9% (#13 of 30)

at Home: 20-22 (47.6%), -3.1 units - ROI: -7.4% (#18 of 30)

on Road: 17-27 (38.6%), + 2.3 units - ROI: 5.2% (#10 of 30)

as Favorite: 10-10 (50.0%), -3.65 units - ROI: -18.3% (#23 of 30)

as Underdog: 27-39 (40.9%), + 2.85 units - ROI: 4.3% (#12 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 26-27 (49.1%), + 6.4 units - ROI: 12.1% (#7 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 5-11 (31.3%), -3.75 units - ROI: -23.4% (#22 of 30)

Interleague: 6-11 (35.3%), -3.45 units - ROI: -20.3% (#22 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 9-10 (47.4%), -4.15 units - ROI: -21.8% (#27 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 28-39 (41.8%), + 3.35 units - ROI: 5.0% (#9 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 12-23 (34.3%), -9.95 units - ROI: -28.4% (#27 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 25-26 (49.0%), + 9.15 units - ROI: 17.9% (#6 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Miami is accustomed to playing the role of spoiler at this time of the year, but for all intents and purposes, a rash of injuries has relegated this year’s team far from capable of that. Playoff hopeful opponents could have their hands full with some of Miami’s young pitchers down the stretch though, namely Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and Pablo Lopez.

 

  1.  BOSTON

Overall Record: 40-39 (50.6%), -1.68 units - ROI: -2.1% (#14 of 30)

at Home: 16-23 (41.0%), -11.5 units - ROI: -29.5% (#30 of 30)

on Road: 24-16 (60.0%), + 9.82 units - ROI: 24.6% (#4 of 30)

as Favorite: 25-17 (59.5%), -1.15 units - ROI: -2.7% (#10 of 30)

as Underdog: 15-22 (40.5%), -0.53 units - ROI: -1.4% (#19 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 18-25 (41.9%), -9.08 units - ROI: -21.1% (#27 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 9-7 (56.3%), + 1.2 units - ROI: 7.5% (#12 of 30)

Interleague: 13-7 (65.0%), + 6.2 units - ROI: 31.0% (#4 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 19-11 (63.3%), + 0.8 units - ROI: 2.7% (#11 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 21-28 (42.9%), -2.48 units - ROI: -5.1% (#14 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 19-18 (51.4%), -1.25 units - ROI: -3.4% (#13 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 21-21 (50.0%), -0.43 units - ROI: -1.0% (#19 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Much like they are doing this season, the Red Sox have struggled at home in last season games in recent years. They have been a far better team on the road, both in terms of bettors’ profit and winning percentage. Keep that in mind as they have road trips remaining at each of their playoff hopeful divisional rivals’ parks.

 

  1.  ATLANTA

Overall Record: 47-33 (58.8%), -2.85 units - ROI: -3.6% (#15 of 30)

at Home: 25-16 (61.0%), -3.75 units - ROI: -9.1% (#21 of 30)

on Road: 22-17 (56.4%), + 0.9 units - ROI: 2.3% (#11 of 30)

as Favorite: 38-27 (58.5%), -7.35 units - ROI: -11.3% (#18 of 30)

as Underdog: 9-6 (60.0%), + 4.5 units - ROI: 30.0% (#3 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 28-19 (59.6%), -1.05 units - ROI: -2.2% (#15 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 11-9 (55.0%), -1.9 units - ROI: -9.5% (#16 of 30)

Interleague: 8-5 (61.5%), + 0.1 units - ROI: 0.8% (#13 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 46-30 (60.5%), -0.85 units - ROI: -1.1% (#14 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 1-3 (25.0%), -2 units - ROI: -50.0% (#29 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 27-21 (56.3%), -7.65 units - ROI: -15.9% (#19 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 20-12 (62.5%), + 4.8 units - ROI: 15.0% (#7 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Two pieces of good news for the Braves upon this late season rundown. First, they have been effective at winning games, 58.8% in fact. Second, they’ve been far better than the Mets, the team they are chasing down in the NL East. That said, bettors have not fared all that well in backing Atlanta late. Pay attention to the profitable underdog spot in case there are rare occasions over the next month in which the defending world champs are dogs.

 

  1.  LA ANGELS

Overall Record: 32-46 (41.0%), -3.1 units - ROI: -4.0% (#16 of 30)

at Home: 15-25 (37.5%), -8.6 units - ROI: -21.5% (#28 of 30)

on Road: 17-21 (44.7%), + 5.5 units - ROI: 14.5% (#9 of 30)

as Favorite: 10-11 (47.6%), -4.9 units - ROI: -23.3% (#25 of 30)

as Underdog: 22-35 (38.6%), + 1.8 units - ROI: 3.2% (#13 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 19-27 (41.3%), -2.75 units - ROI: -6.0% (#16 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 6-11 (35.3%), -0.95 units - ROI: -5.6% (#15 of 30)

Interleague: 7-8 (46.7%), + 0.6 units - ROI: 4.0% (#10 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 10-10 (50.0%), -3.05 units - ROI: -15.3% (#22 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 22-36 (37.9%), -0.05 units - ROI: -0.1% (#11 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 12-21 (36.4%), -8.4 units - ROI: -25.5% (#25 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 20-25 (44.4%), + 5.3 units - ROI: 11.8% (#10 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: It’s hard to think of a whole lot of reasons that bettors would be getting behind the Angels for the rest of this season, although they did just post an impressive sweep of the White Sox. This would seem to be a team playing out the string right now and one that wouldn’t seem to have the fight of your typical pesky spoiler.

 

  1.  CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Overall Record: 41-39 (51.3%), -3.5 units - ROI: -4.4% (#17 of 30)

at Home: 21-13 (61.8%), + 3.7 units - ROI: 10.9% (#6 of 30)

on Road: 20-26 (43.5%), -7.2 units - ROI: -15.7% (#23 of 30)

as Favorite: 30-21 (58.8%), -4.1 units - ROI: -8.0% (#14 of 30)

as Underdog: 11-18 (37.9%), + 0.6 units - ROI: 2.1% (#14 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 27-23 (54.0%), + 3.25 units - ROI: 6.5% (#10 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 8-10 (44.4%), -6.05 units - ROI: -33.6% (#26 of 30)

Interleague: 6-6 (50.0%), -0.7 units - ROI: -5.8% (#15 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 35-31 (53.0%), -7.15 units - ROI: -10.8% (#19 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 6-8 (42.9%), + 3.65 units - ROI: 26.1% (#4 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 20-22 (47.6%), -11.85 units - ROI: -28.2% (#26 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 21-17 (55.3%), + 8.35 units - ROI: 22.0% (#4 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: The White Sox have lost their way and it appears that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing campaigns any projected divisional favorite has put up in recent memory. There is nothing in this late season report that should give bettors hope for a surge either. If you’re still behind manager Tony LaRussa’s club, it looks like time to switch to football.

 

  1.  ARIZONA

Overall Record: 34-45 (43.0%), -5.1 units - ROI: -6.5% (#18 of 30)

at Home: 23-21 (52.3%), + 3 units - ROI: 6.8% (#9 of 30)

on Road: 11-24 (31.4%), -8.1 units - ROI: -23.1% (#25 of 30)

as Favorite: 20-8 (71.4%), + 7.9 units - ROI: 28.2% (#1 of 30)

as Underdog: 14-37 (27.5%), -13 units - ROI: -25.5% (#26 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 17-20 (45.9%), + 0.25 units - ROI: 0.7% (#14 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 8-12 (40.0%), -3.4 units - ROI: -17.0% (#18 of 30)

Interleague: 9-13 (40.9%), -1.95 units - ROI: -8.9% (#17 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 15-8 (65.2%), + 5.8 units - ROI: 25.2% (#4 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 19-37 (33.9%), -10.9 units - ROI: -19.5% (#25 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 17-15 (53.1%), + 1.55 units - ROI: 4.8% (#9 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 17-30 (36.2%), -6.65 units - ROI: -14.1% (#25 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: The breakdown of Arizona’s recent late season performance is quite interesting, as the Diamondbacks have not been known for playing the role of spoilers effectively, but have been a worthy wager as favorites and against teams they are better than. In terms of what that means for 2022, it’s not good, as the schedule is loaded with playoff hopefuls, and there are only three games at this point scheduled against teams with a lesser record.

 

  1.  DETROIT

Overall Record: 29-53 (35.4%), -5.83 units - ROI: -7.1% (#19 of 30)

at Home: 15-22 (40.5%), + 1 units - ROI: 2.7% (#12 of 30)

on Road: 14-31 (31.1%), -6.83 units - ROI: -15.2% (#21 of 30)

as Favorite: 3-3 (50.0%), -0.4 units - ROI: -6.7% (#12 of 30)

as Underdog: 26-50 (34.2%), -5.43 units - ROI: -7.1% (#22 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 12-37 (24.5%), -19.4 units - ROI: -39.6% (#30 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 9-10 (47.4%), + 6.1 units - ROI: 32.1% (#5 of 30)

Interleague: 8-6 (57.1%), + 7.47 units - ROI: 53.4% (#2 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 6-9 (40.0%), -1.33 units - ROI: -8.9% (#16 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 23-44 (34.3%), -4.5 units - ROI: -6.7% (#16 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 8-22 (26.7%), -6.58 units - ROI: -21.9% (#21 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 21-31 (40.4%), + 0.75 units - ROI: 1.4% (#17 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: There are teams that have been better overall in the last month of the three most recent seasons than the Tigers, but the performance of Detroit in late season games against non-divisional foes has been noteworthy. They have actually produced a winning record (17-16) despite being 24 games under-.500 overall. If that continues in 2022, the AL Central foes will be happy but it could prove troublesome for the likes of the Angels, Astros, Orioles and Mariners the rest of the way, the last three being playoff contenders.

 

  1.  OAKLAND

Overall Record: 45-37 (54.9%), -7.15 units - ROI: -8.7% (#20 of 30)

at Home: 23-15 (60.5%), -3.95 units - ROI: -10.4% (#22 of 30)

on Road: 22-22 (50.0%), -3.2 units - ROI: -7.3% (#17 of 30)

as Favorite: 36-26 (58.1%), -8.65 units - ROI: -14.0% (#20 of 30)

as Underdog: 9-11 (45.0%), + 1.5 units - ROI: 7.5% (#8 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 31-22 (58.5%), + 0.85 units - ROI: 1.6% (#13 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 9-9 (50.0%), -6.1 units - ROI: -33.9% (#27 of 30)

Interleague: 5-6 (45.5%), -1.9 units - ROI: -17.3% (#20 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 35-30 (53.8%), -13.1 units - ROI: -20.2% (#25 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 10-7 (58.8%), + 5.95 units - ROI: 35.0% (#3 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 26-19 (57.8%), -3.55 units - ROI: -7.9% (#15 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 19-17 (52.8%), -2.1 units - ROI: -5.8% (#22 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Obviously this year’s A’s team differs entirely from that of the last three years. Those teams produced a late season mark of eight games over .500. I can’t see that continuing this month.

 

  1.  BALTIMORE

Overall Record: 30-54 (35.7%), -7.6 units - ROI: -9.0% (#21 of 30)

at Home: 18-26 (40.9%), + 0.7 units - ROI: 1.6% (#13 of 30)

on Road: 12-28 (30.0%), -8.3 units - ROI: -20.8% (#24 of 30)

as Favorite: 4-7 (36.4%), -4.7 units - ROI: -42.7% (#30 of 30)

as Underdog: 26-47 (35.6%), -2.9 units - ROI: -4.0% (#20 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 16-35 (31.4%), -5 units - ROI: -9.8% (#18 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 8-12 (40.0%), -5.4 units - ROI: -27.0% (#23 of 30)

Interleague: 6-7 (46.2%), + 2.8 units - ROI: 21.5% (#8 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 5-6 (45.5%), -0.15 units - ROI: -1.4% (#15 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 25-48 (34.2%), -7.45 units - ROI: -10.2% (#20 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 7-24 (22.6%), -13.25 units - ROI: -42.7% (#30 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 23-30 (43.4%), + 5.65 units - ROI: 10.7% (#11 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Like Oakland, the last three years of Orioles teams bear little resemblance to the 2022 club. This time in a good way. Clearly, the Orioles will need to improve their late season performance to have an impact on this year’s playoff chase.

 

  1.  PITTSBURGH

Overall Record: 32-52 (38.1%), -8.95 units - ROI: -10.7% (#22 of 30)

at Home: 22-24 (47.8%), + 3.85 units - ROI: 8.4% (#8 of 30)

on Road: 10-28 (26.3%), -12.8 units - ROI: -33.7% (#29 of 30)

as Favorite: 5-7 (41.7%), -4.2 units - ROI: -35.0% (#29 of 30)

as Underdog: 27-45 (37.5%), -4.75 units - ROI: -6.6% (#21 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 18-33 (35.3%), -5.7 units - ROI: -11.2% (#19 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 10-8 (55.6%), + 3.7 units - ROI: 20.6% (#7 of 30)

Interleague: 4-11 (26.7%), -6.95 units - ROI: -46.3% (#29 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 2-5 (28.6%), -4.85 units - ROI: -69.3% (#30 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 30-47 (39.0%), -4.1 units - ROI: -5.3% (#15 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 13-20 (39.4%), -4.55 units - ROI: -13.8% (#17 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 19-32 (37.3%), -4.4 units - ROI: -8.6% (#24 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Pittsburgh has been a thorn in teams’ sides in late season games at home in recent years, and that could prove to be a problem for the likes of the Blue Jays, Mets and Cardinals (twice).

 

  1.  HOUSTON

Overall Record: 46-36 (56.1%), -9.7 units - ROI: -11.8% (#23 of 30)

at Home: 25-14 (64.1%), -3.05 units - ROI: -7.8% (#19 of 30)

on Road: 21-22 (48.8%), -6.65 units - ROI: -15.5% (#22 of 30)

as Favorite: 44-30 (59.5%), -6.5 units - ROI: -8.8% (#16 of 30)

as Underdog: 2-6 (25.0%), -3.2 units - ROI: -40.0% (#28 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 33-29 (53.2%), -12.8 units - ROI: -20.6% (#26 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 6-1 (85.7%), + 4.6 units - ROI: 65.7% (#1 of 30)

Interleague: 7-6 (53.8%), -1.5 units - ROI: -11.5% (#19 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 42-30 (58.3%), -7.8 units - ROI: -10.8% (#20 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 4-6 (40.0%), -1.9 units - ROI: -19.0% (#24 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 24-20 (54.5%), -9.7 units - ROI: -22.0% (#22 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 22-15 (59.5%), + 2.65 units - ROI: 7.2% (#15 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: For as good as Houston has been over the course of the last four seasons, the late season performance leaves a little to be desired. They have lost nearly 10 units for bettors in the games of this study, with particularly poor marks coming against divisional foes and on the road. Like recent seasons, the Astros won’t have a whole lot to play for over the last month, leading comfortably in the division and having a nice lead to the top spot in the AL as well.

 

  1.  CHICAGO CUBS

Overall Record: 38-44 (46.3%), -10 units - ROI: -12.2% (#24 of 30)

at Home: 19-22 (46.3%), -7.05 units - ROI: -17.2% (#26 of 30)

on Road: 19-22 (46.3%), -2.95 units - ROI: -7.2% (#16 of 30)

as Favorite: 25-24 (51.0%), -9.55 units - ROI: -19.5% (#24 of 30)

as Underdog: 13-20 (39.4%), -0.45 units - ROI: -1.4% (#18 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 27-32 (45.8%), -9.25 units - ROI: -15.7% (#23 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 3-7 (30.0%), -4.05 units - ROI: -40.5% (#29 of 30)

Interleague: 8-5 (61.5%), + 3.3 units - ROI: 25.4% (#5 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 28-25 (52.8%), -4.9 units - ROI: -9.2% (#17 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 10-19 (34.5%), -5.1 units - ROI: -17.6% (#23 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 22-16 (57.9%), + 5.3 units - ROI: 13.9% (#7 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 16-28 (36.4%), -15.3 units - ROI: -34.8% (#29 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: The Cubs have posted identical won-lost marks in recent late season games at home and on the road, so pay no attention to locale. There is an interesting trend showing how poorly this team has reacted when coming off a loss.

 

  1.  CLEVELAND

Overall Record: 43-41 (51.2%), -10.55 units - ROI: -12.6% (#25 of 30)

at Home: 22-21 (51.2%), -9.05 units - ROI: -21.0% (#27 of 30)

on Road: 21-20 (51.2%), -1.5 units - ROI: -3.7% (#13 of 30)

as Favorite: 32-23 (58.2%), -7.7 units - ROI: -14.0% (#21 of 30)

as Underdog: 11-18 (37.9%), -2.85 units - ROI: -9.8% (#23 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 29-25 (53.7%), -8.35 units - ROI: -15.5% (#22 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 8-5 (61.5%), + 5.15 units - ROI: 39.6% (#3 of 30)

Interleague: 6-11 (35.3%), -7.35 units - ROI: -43.2% (#28 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 31-24 (56.4%), -7.85 units - ROI: -14.3% (#21 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 12-17 (41.4%), -2.7 units - ROI: -9.3% (#19 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 22-20 (52.4%), -7.4 units - ROI: -17.6% (#20 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 21-21 (50.0%), -3.15 units - ROI: -7.5% (#23 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: The Guardians are in a dogfight for the AL Central title, and they will have to be better in this late season segment of the schedule than they have been the last three years. Barely over-.500 ball is not going to cut it, particularly with how well the Twins have fared in recent Septembers.

 

  1.  CINCINNATI

Overall Record: 40-41 (49.4%), -10.25 units - ROI: -12.7% (#26 of 30)

at Home: 21-20 (51.2%), -5.8 units - ROI: -14.1% (#24 of 30)

on Road: 19-21 (47.5%), -4.45 units - ROI: -11.1% (#18 of 30)

as Favorite: 30-27 (52.6%), -10.1 units - ROI: -17.7% (#22 of 30)

as Underdog: 10-14 (41.7%), -0.15 units - ROI: -0.6% (#16 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 24-23 (51.1%), -6 units - ROI: -12.8% (#20 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 10-10 (50.0%), -0.05 units - ROI: -0.2% (#13 of 30)

Interleague: 6-8 (42.9%), -4.2 units - ROI: -30.0% (#26 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 20-16 (55.6%), -6.15 units - ROI: -17.1% (#23 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 20-25 (44.4%), -4.1 units - ROI: -9.1% (#18 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 16-21 (43.2%), -9.25 units - ROI: -25.0% (#24 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 24-20 (54.5%), -1 units - ROI: -2.3% (#20 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: The Reds are back in the role of potentially playing spoilers for 2022. They have fared reasonably well in that role, although this team doesn’t have the offensive explosiveness to keep it up.

 

  1.  NY METS

Overall Record: 40-42 (48.8%), -15.1 units - ROI: -18.4% (#27 of 30)

at Home: 24-20 (54.5%), -4.65 units - ROI: -10.6% (#23 of 30)

on Road: 16-22 (42.1%), -10.45 units - ROI: -27.5% (#26 of 30)

as Favorite: 33-26 (55.9%), -7.25 units - ROI: -12.3% (#19 of 30)

as Underdog: 7-16 (30.4%), -7.85 units - ROI: -34.1% (#27 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 24-23 (51.1%), -7.4 units - ROI: -15.7% (#24 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 9-10 (47.4%), -3.4 units - ROI: -17.9% (#20 of 30)

Interleague: 7-9 (43.8%), -4.3 units - ROI: -26.9% (#24 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 16-15 (51.6%), -7 units - ROI: -22.6% (#28 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 24-27 (47.1%), -8.1 units - ROI: -15.9% (#22 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 18-23 (43.9%), -12.9 units - ROI: -31.5% (#28 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 22-19 (53.7%), -2.2 units - ROI: -5.4% (#21 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Red flags are going up on this report, as the Mets are also in a hotly contested divisional race and can’t afford to falter late. There are some bad signs of late, as the offense has cooled. There isn’t a particularly good trend on this list to fall back on either. New York is the first of four contenders in 2022 that bring up the bottom of this late season performance breakdown.

 

  1.  PHILADELPHIA

Overall Record: 39-49 (44.3%), -17.13 units - ROI: -19.5% (#28 of 30)

at Home: 20-15 (57.1%), -1.85 units - ROI: -5.3% (#17 of 30)

on Road: 19-34 (35.8%), -15.28 units - ROI: -28.8% (#27 of 30)

as Favorite: 24-25 (49.0%), -13.15 units - ROI: -26.8% (#26 of 30)

as Underdog: 15-24 (38.5%), -3.98 units - ROI: -10.2% (#24 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 23-30 (43.4%), -7.43 units - ROI: -14.0% (#21 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 9-9 (50.0%), -5.05 units - ROI: -28.1% (#24 of 30)

Interleague: 7-10 (41.2%), -4.65 units - ROI: -27.4% (#25 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 28-29 (49.1%), -9.9 units - ROI: -17.4% (#24 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 11-20 (35.5%), -7.23 units - ROI: -23.3% (#26 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 21-20 (51.2%), -3.15 units - ROI: -7.7% (#14 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 18-29 (38.3%), -13.98 units - ROI: -29.7% (#28 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Philadelphia’s late season road performance is one of the biggest concerns you’ll find from this entire report. The Phillies are just 19-34 in their last 53 September/October regular season road games, producing a -28.8% ROI for backers. Worst part about that is that Philadelphia’s season concludes with a 10-game road trip.

 

  1.  NY YANKEES

Overall Record: 44-38 (53.7%), -23.25 units - ROI: -28.4% (#29 of 30)

at Home: 23-16 (59.0%), -8.85 units - ROI: -22.7% (#29 of 30)

on Road: 21-22 (48.8%), -14.4 units - ROI: -33.5% (#28 of 30)

as Favorite: 41-33 (55.4%), -21.75 units - ROI: -29.4% (#27 of 30)

as Underdog: 3-5 (37.5%), -1.5 units - ROI: -18.8% (#25 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 28-26 (51.9%), -14.75 units - ROI: -27.3% (#28 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 14-7 (66.7%), -3.75 units - ROI: -17.9% (#19 of 30)

Interleague: 2-5 (28.6%), -4.75 units - ROI: -67.9% (#30 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 40-32 (55.6%), -20.25 units - ROI: -28.1% (#29 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 4-6 (40.0%), -3 units - ROI: -30.0% (#27 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 24-20 (54.5%), -15.35 units - ROI: -34.9% (#29 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 20-18 (52.6%), -7.9 units - ROI: -20.8% (#27 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Not only have the Yankees become a train wreck for bettors since the All-Star break, now we add this poor late season performance trend on top of the reasons to continue fading them. As usual, most of the records are above .500, but overpricing buries New York backers.

 

  1.  SAN DIEGO

Overall Record: 29-49 (37.2%), -24.6 units - ROI: -31.5% (#30 of 30)

at Home: 17-19 (47.2%), -5.45 units - ROI: -15.1% (#25 of 30)

on Road: 12-30 (28.6%), -19.15 units - ROI: -45.6% (#30 of 30)

as Favorite: 20-14 (58.8%), -1.3 units - ROI: -3.8% (#11 of 30)

as Underdog: 9-35 (20.5%), -23.3 units - ROI: -53.0% (#29 of 30)

vs. Division foes: 18-31 (36.7%), -14.6 units - ROI: -29.8% (#29 of 30)

vs. Non-Div. League: 3-11 (21.4%), -7.05 units - ROI: -50.4% (#30 of 30)

Interleague: 8-7 (53.3%), -2.95 units - ROI: -19.7% (#21 of 30)

vs. team w/ worse record: 15-11 (57.7%), -2.7 units - ROI: -10.4% (#18 of 30)

vs. team w/ better record: 14-38 (26.9%), -21.9 units - ROI: -42.1% (#28 of 30)

coming off SU Win: 14-17 (45.2%), -7.7 units - ROI: -24.8% (#23 of 30)

coming off SU Loss: 15-32 (31.9%), -16.9 units - ROI: -36.0% (#30 of 30)

Steve's thoughts for 2022: Occupying the bottom spot on the list of late season performing teams is San Diego, worst in the league in late season ROI, and better than only the Tigers and Orioles in terms of winning percentage. The most glaring weak spot is the record against teams with a better record as the Padres are just 14-38 against them! Why is this such a concern for 2022? Well, as of press time, 14 of their final 30 games are against better teams.

 

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