The state known for showcasing its thoroughbreds welcomes a different type of racing tonight, as the NASCAR series takes to Kentucky Speedway to show off its version of horsepower. Kentucky Speedway is the final race on a 1.5-mile track before the playoffs begin, and it is sure to become a reference point for teams going forward. This is the last chance for teams that have secured playoff spots to do some testing that can be applied to the rest of the 1.5-mile tracks remaining this season.
Handicappers can expect tight racing and more of the season’s unknowns as the importance of track position vs. fresh tires will take center stage for drivers and crew chiefs. From what we have seen so far this weekend, it appears that both strategies will carry a significant role in deciding the outcome of the race. In particular a late caution could really split up the field with teams scrambling to decide between grip or clean air.
In the last four comparable races, Kurt Busch has an average finish of 12.3, while Clint Bowyer has an average finish of 25th. Further, Busch has three top-10 finishes in the last 4 races at Kentucky, while Bowyer has not been able to record a top 10 during that same span. Busch has the best current ROI (plus 9 units) in head-to-head wagers on the NASCAR circuit, and was faster than Bowyer in both practice sessions this weekend. With these facts in mind, we will take Busch (-110) over Bowyer (-110).
Our record in head to head wagers this season is 31-14 heading into Kentucky Speedway.