Lessons learned from NFL Week 6


It was another strong week for bettors in NFL Week 6, but success should not stagnate the will to improve. The goal is to continue to improve as a handicapper, and we strive to do that with our deep dives into things a quick glance at a box score would not divulge.


This week we focus on two teams with a lot to dissect. Indianapolis is not only improving but getting healthy as well. If that trend continues, a real race could develop in the AFC South. Speaking of trends, a troubling one is developing for the Chargers that threatens to derail a promising season. 


Indianapolis Hitting Its Stride


In 2018, the Colts were in a tailspin after a Week 6 loss to the New York Jets dropped them to 1-5. Their defense had allowed 30.0 points per game, and the offense looked stagnant with scoring efforts of 24 or fewer points in four of those six contests. It seemed that it was another lost season, but a 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS run to end the season put the Colts in the postseason, where they fell to Kansas City in the divisional round. Similarly, this season might have seemed lost after their 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS start. But improved health and quarterback play could have the Colts finding some momentum at the right time.


After handling Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last weekend, Indianapolis is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in its last three games, and the offense is beginning to shape its identity. Carson Wentz has looked much more comfortable over the last three games, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 9.80 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Over those three games he is the fifth-best passer in the league by PFF standards and the second best  when kept clean over that stretch. 

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